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本文引入模糊集论中基于模糊等价关系的模糊聚类的分析方法,将发病数量(病害强度)、空间和时间动态的相互关系联系起来,作为统一体,研究了杨树灰斑病(Coryneum populinum Bres)的流行动态,以平均病情指数((?))、聚集度指标((?)/M)和病叶率(p)作为群体动态的特征量度,将对病害流行系统的考察化成对若干亚系统(若干阶段)来研究,使复杂的系统得以简化。同时对该病短期预报、中期预报进行了研究,建立了短期和中期预报方程。
In this paper, fuzzy clustering analysis method based on fuzzy equivalence relation in fuzzy sets theory is introduced to relate the relationship between disease quantity (disease intensity) and spatial and temporal dynamics. As a unified body, Coryneum populinum Bres was used as a feature measure of population dynamics based on the average disease index (?), the degree of aggregation index (? / M) and the rate of diseased leaf (p) Several sub-systems (stages) have been studied to simplify complex systems. At the same time, the short-term and medium-term forecast of the disease were studied, and the short-term and medium-term forecast equations were established.