【摘 要】
：
The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sports league in the US in terms of annual revenue.Unpredictability of the outcomes of NFL games is one important reason why they are very attrac
【机 构】
：
Max Planck Institute for Human Development,Germany
【出 处】
：
第一届决策与脑研究国际研讨会(THE 1stINTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON DECISION MA
论文部分内容阅读
The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sports league in the US in terms of annual revenue.Unpredictability of the outcomes of NFL games is one important reason why they are very attractive to speculators and gamblers alike.Based on 7,194 regular- season games from 1983 to 2012,we developed and tested a family of simple heuristics that can be applied to predict game winners by a person with no knowledge of American football.We also collected predictions made by football experts from various news outlets (e.g.,ESPN) from 2004 to 2012.During that time span,the accuracy of our best heuristic is equivalent to that of an average expert.Furthermore,we investigated the prediction accuracy of two “crowds” (i.e.,groups of forecasters): experts and gamblers.We found that although the expert crowd does better than an average expert,the gambler crowd has the best record.
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