论文部分内容阅读
Objective To introduce the LD50s of Chinese trauma patients, and to compare the performance of the injury severity score (ISS), the new injury severity score (NISS), ISS/LD50, and NISS/LD50 in predicting mortality and length of hospital stay of trauma patients.Methods Data of 6417 patients from the Chinese Trauma Data Bank (CTDB) were analyzed.The LD50s were obtained by using probit regression.Discrimination and calibration of the ISS, NISS, ISS/LD50, and NISS/LD50 in predicting mortality or length of hospital stay were compared using receiver operator characteristic curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics.Results The LD50s of ISS of age 16-44, 45-64, and ≥65 were 55, 49, and 33, respectively (for males: 54, 50, and 31; for females: 60, 47, and 39).The LD50s of NISS of age 16-44, 45-64, and ≥65 were 62, 56 and 43, respectively (for males: 62, 56, and 42; for females: 65, 53, and 48).The NISS/LD50 showed better discrimination than NISS in predicting mortality (area under the ROC curve =0.953 vs.0.950; p =0.0374).In predicting length of hospital stay, NISS/LD50 showed the best discrimination (AUCROC=0.678).NISS and ISS/LD50 were equivalent (AUCROC=0.675 vs.0.672; p =0.2722), and both performed better than ISS (AUCROC=0.666).Conclusion This study introduces the LD50s of Chinese trauma patients for the first time.NISS/LD50 predicts mortality better than NISS, which also performs better in predicting length of hospital stay than ISS, ISS/LD50 and NISS.