A Temperature-Precipitation Based Leafing Model and Its Application in Northeast China

来源 :第八届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:sssss1O
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
  Plant phenology models, especiallyy leafing models, play critical roles in evaluating the impact of climate change on the primary production of temperate plants.Existing models based on temperature alone could not accurately simulate ploant leafing in arid and semi-arid regions.The objective of the present study was to test the suitability of the existing temperature-based leafing models in arid and semi-arid regions, and to develop a temperature-precipitation based leafing model (TP), based on the long-term (i.e., 12-27 years) ground leafing observation data and meteorological data in Northeast China.The better simulation of leafing for all the plant species in Northeast China was given by TP with the fixed starting date (TPn) than with the parameterized starting date (TPm), which gave the smallest average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.21 days.Tree leafing models were validated with independent data, and the coefficient of determination (R2) was greater than 0.60 in 75% of the estimates by TP and the spring warming model (SW) with the fixed starting date.The average RMSE of herb leafing simulated by TPn was 5.03 days, much lower than other models (>9.51 days), while the average R2 of TPn and TPm were 0.68 and 0.57, respectively, much higher than the other models (<0.22).It indicates that TPn is a universal model and more Suitable for simulating leafing of trees and herbs than the prior models.Furthermore, water is an important factor determining herh leafing in arid and semi-arid ternperate regions.
其他文献
利用2012年4月1日~2013年3月31日ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式降水预报资料,全国2419个台站逐6小时降水量观测、CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)卫星与全国3万余个自动站逐小时降水融合资料,基于列联表预报评分、泰勒图等统计方法,客观对比分析ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式对中国逐6h、12h、24h分段降水的预报能力
This study explores the microphysical responses to a cloud seeding operation in the Sanjiangyuan re gion.China.The cloud seeding was performed using a zigzag ight pattern, while the detection phase wa
应用宁夏气象台站1961-2010年逐候降水量序列资料,计算了春、夏、秋季3个季降水的集中期、集中度和干旱Z指数,运用趋势分析、相关分析、合成分析讨论了3季的集中期、集中度与旱涝程度的时空变化特征及其相互关系.结果表明:50a来宁夏春夏秋干旱等级均呈加剧趋势,秋季加剧更明显,3季中中部干旱带加剧最严重,南部山区次之,北部最小,春季集中期无明显变化趋势,但集中度有上升趋势,夏季集中期、集中度缓慢下降
July-June precipitation has been reconstructed back to A.D.1464 for the Baluntai region on the southern slope of the central Tien Shah Mountains.China, using the Picea schrenkiana tree-ring width.The
会议
An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America.A set of regional climate simulations is performed wit
会议
2010年7月18~20日西南低涡东北上影响华北,造成了华北地区大范围大暴雨过程.本文利用NCEP/NVAR 1°×1°再分析场资料,分析了本次西南涡北上加强的原因和造成河北大暴雨的形成机制.结果表明:西南涡这次华北暴雨的主要影响系统,暴雨的持续与西南涡和中纬度高空槽(低涡)的耦合过程密切相关;高、低空急流相互作用,有利于底层上升运动的发展和加强;高空湿位涡扰动下传,使得西南低涡发展加强;暴雨发生
将1983-2010年河北省麦区7个站点的白粉病发生程度与同期气象资料进行相关分析,初步明确了3月下旬-4月中旬平均相对湿度是影响病害流行的关键气象因子;t检验结果显示,河北省白粉病轻、重分布区的差异不显著,表明不必分区建立预测函数;通过Fisher判别准则,构建了白粉病发生程度的判别分级模型,其历史拟合率达到82.5%,2010年的试报准确率达到100%,表明模型预报效果较好.该模型的建立提高了
The plasma characteristics of a lightning discharge channel are reviewed.The spectrum of the natural lighting is investigated by employing the slit-less spectrograph.It is found that the spectrurm cha
利用内蒙古典型草原21个气象站点的气象和数草观测资料,结合潜在蒸散量和改进的作物系数计算方法,模拟计算了2009年草原植被作物系数和实际蒸散量.在GIS软件的支持下,分析了二者的时空分布特点,并通过反映牧草长势的NDVI变化趋势予以验证.结果表明:5-8月间随着月份的增加作物系数Kcx最大值的变化趋势由0.6→1.2→1.4→1.4,平均值是0.28→0.36→0.40→0.38.4个时期的Kcx
利用东北地区153个气象站1961-2010年逐日气温资料,采用统计学方法分析水稻障碍型低温冷害的气候特征,并与孕穗期和抽穗-开花期温度进行相关分析.结果表明:东北大部水稻障碍型低温冷害事件呈减少趋势,且其区域性分布较明显,表现为吉林大部在水稻孕穗期、辽宁局部在抽穗期低温冷害呈增加趋势;近50a低温冷害发生站次年际波动较大,总体呈减少趋势,但2001-2010年冷害发生站次明显增多;障碍型低温冷害