针对传统ARCH模型存在的不足,本文采用分位ARCH模型来模拟我国经济的波动性,在不考虑GDP数据分布的条件下实现对我国经济波动性的模拟。并研究了分位ARCH模型的结构特征,发现随机系数分位AR模型可以用来代替分位ARCH模型来模拟经济时间序列的波动性,实证研究表明,中国GDP增长率分布的具有高峰厚尾性和非对称性的特征。 Aiming at the shortcomings of the traditional ARCH model, this paper uses the quantile ARCH model to simulate the volatility of China’s economy and simulates the economic volatility of China without considering the distribution of GDP data. And studies the structural characteristics of quantile ARCH model. It is found that the random coefficient quantile AR model can be used to replace the quantile ARCH model to simulate the volatility of economic time series. Empirical studies show that the distribution of GDP growth rate in China has a peak-tail-fatness And asymmetric features.