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证券分析师作为证券市场的信息中介,是证券市场最重要的参与主体之一,其提供的盈余预测报告的准确度对市场有非常重要的影响。文献研究表明分析师所属券商的内在环境与其盈余预测精度有显著的相关性。以《新财富》杂志每年评选的“本土最佳券商(研究机构)”为标准将我国证券公司分为两大阵营:“本土最佳券商(研究机构)”前五名记为Top5,其余券商记为非Top5,研究二者分析师预测偏差是否有差异。研究表明,分属不同券商阵营的证券分析师预测差异显著,“本土最佳券商(研究机构)”前五名的分析师盈余预测更加准确。特别是在不存在承销关系和大券商其预测偏差更小;而存在承销关系时,分析师更倾向于发布乐观预测。研究还发现虽然乐观性对盈余预测偏差影响显著,但不同券商阵营的这种差异并不是由于分析师乐观性不同造成的,可能更多与分析师素质有关。本文研究结果拓展了分析师行为研究,对分析师的独立性提出了思考的空间,为投资者评价分析师、有选择性地关注分析师报告有很好的借鉴意义。
As the information intermediary of the securities market, the securities analyst is one of the most important participants in the securities market. The accuracy of the earnings forecast report provided by the securities analyst has a very important impact on the market. Literature research shows that there is a significant correlation between the internal environment of analysts’ securities companies and their earnings forecast accuracy. The “best local brokerage firms (research institutes)” with “Best Domestic Brokerage (Research Institutions)” nominated by New Fortune magazine each year are divided into two major camps: Top5, the rest of the brokerage recorded as non-Top5, study the two analysts predict bias are different. Research shows that the securities analysts who belong to different broker camps have significantly different forecasts. “The top five domestic brokerage analysts (research institutes) have more accurate earnings forecasts.” Especially in the absence of underwriting relationships and large brokerage its forecast bias smaller; and underwriting relationship, analysts are more inclined to release optimistic forecasts. The study also found that while optimism has a significant impact on earnings forecast bias, this difference between different brokerages’ camps is not due to the optimism of analysts but may be more related to the quality of analysts. The result of this paper extends the research on analyst behavior and puts forward space for thinking on the independence of analysts. It is a good reference for investors to evaluate analysts and selectively focus on analyst reports.