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本文基于面板数据运用扩展的贸易引力模型对2003—2013年中国对非洲出口贸易影响因素进行验证。结果表明,进行贸易的两国的经济总量、中非合作论坛效应、中国对非直接投资是影响中国对非洲出口的主要因素。文章进一步分析得出,随着中国不断加大对非洲的基础建设投资和产业对接,以及非洲持续上升的经济增长,中国对非出口潜力仍有很大增长空间。最后,本文为进一步扩大中国对非洲的出口提出一些政策建议。
Based on the panel data, this article uses the extended trade gravity model to verify the factors influencing China’s export to Africa in 2003-2013. The results show that the total economic output of the two countries in trade, the effect of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and China’s influence on non-direct investment are the major factors that affect China’s exports to Africa. The article further analyzes that as China continues to increase its investment in infrastructure and industrial links with Africa and its continued economic growth, there is still room for growth in non-export potential. Finally, this article proposes some policy suggestions for further expanding China’s exports to Africa.