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近年来,中国的国内生产总值和财政收入高速增长。中国政府为了实施依托科技和创新的战略,在研发经费支出上的投入也快速增加。本文利用协整检验的方法对1991年-2013年中国的国内生产总值、财政收入和研发经费支出的时间序列数据进行研究。分析结果表明国内生产总值与研发经费支出存在长期均衡关系,财政收入与研发经费支出也存在长期均衡关系。然后本文进一步运用ARIMA模型对中国和美国在可见未来的研发经费支出进行预测。结果表明中国的研发经费支出一直会跟美国有相当大的差距,且难以赶上美国。接下来,本文分析中国研发环境的下列三个缺陷:科研经费使用效率低,创新人力资源与经费不匹配,以及科技成果评价体系不科学。最后,文章给出改善中国研发环境的建议。
In recent years, China’s GDP and fiscal revenue have enjoyed rapid growth. In order to implement the strategy relying on science and technology and innovation, the Chinese government has also rapidly increased its investment in R & D expenditure. In this paper, the cointegration test is used to study the time-series data of China’s GDP, fiscal revenue and R & D expenditure in 1991-2013. The results of the analysis show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and R & D expenditures, and there is also a long-term equilibrium relationship between fiscal revenue and R & D expenditures. Then, this article further uses the ARIMA model to forecast the R & D expenditures of China and the United States in the foreseeable future. The results show that China’s R & D expenditures will always be quite different from those in the United States and difficult to catch up with the United States. Next, the paper analyzes the following three flaws in China’s R & D environment: inefficient use of research funding, mismatch of innovative human resources and funding, and unscientific evaluation of scientific and technological achievements. Finally, the article gives suggestions to improve China’s R & D environment.