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Background:Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers in China.Estimation of future cancer trends is important for public health planning.The aim of this study is to examine past trends of lung cancer incidence from 1998 to 2007 and to predict the future lung cancer burden up to 2002 in China.Materials and Methods:Lung cancer incidence data were retrieved from the national cancer registration database having continuous data from 1998 to 2007.Annual population projection was obtained from the National Statistics Bureau for the same period.Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction package was applied to describe the trend of overall lung cancer incidence and predict future lung cancer incidence until the year 2020.Results:The crude incidence rates of lung cancer increased from 43.39 per 100,000 in 1998 to 51.25 per 100,000 in 2007.Mter age standardization,the incidence rates remained relatively stable during the past 10 years.These trends were mainly driven by aging effect,whereas no obvious period effects and cohort effects were seen.Our projection showed that the age-standardized lung cancer incidence would remain steady in the next few years up to 2020.The estimated number of incident cases would increase,with a total of 693,727 new cases in 2020.Conclusion:The burden of lung cancer incidence is likely to continue increasing.Effective policies such as smoking cessation and environment protection are imperative for lung cancer control and prevention.