中国、俄罗斯和美国在中亚:安全和经济一体化

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After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early1990s, China and Russia acted largely on the basis of shared interests in Central Asia. Both of them looked to maintain regional stability and successful management of their interests in Central Asia, whose energy resources are vital for both of them. Thus, in general, we could say that in the early years following the end of the Cold War, the Central Asian states once acted as a unifying element in Chinese-Russian relations. However, the disintegration of the Soviet Union has caused a number of serious challenges for Russia in subsequent years and as Russia has struggled, it has created more opportunities in Central Asia for China, which China has not failed to take advantage of. Now China is increasing its economic presence and has the potential to supplant Russia as the main consumer of energy exports from the region. China’s recent proposal of building a New Silk Road economic belt, a huge project linking China to Europe through Central Asia, is another strategy to enhance China’s influence in Central Asia. Of course, if Russia is successful in the development of its Customs Union and Eurasian Economic Union in the near future, it can slow down China’s economic access to Central Asia. Central Asia then, which once served as a unifying element in China-Russia relations, has the potential to become a divisive factor in Chinese-Russian relations, leaving open the question as to whether Central Asian states will move closer to Russia or China-led projects in the near future.Another active player in Central Asia after the collapse of the USSR was the United States. The US, with its New Silk Road initiative, aimed to provide economic boost for Afghanistan as well as other Central Asian republics. However, under the increasing power and influence of China and Russia in the region, the US is gradually losing its positions in the Central Asian region. Moreover, it is clear that after the US troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, White House will face challenges in implementing its "New Silk Road" strategy and in order to stabilize and connect the region to the global economy the US needs support and cooperation of two major powers in the region-China and Russia.While most analysts are interested in whether China, Russia, and the US can maintain strong relations or will remain suspicious of each other’s activities in Central Asia, particularly as it regards the consumption of energy resources, Central Asian states are left with no choice but to hope for investment stability and cooperation in favor of regional economic development. One thing is clear-how major powers deal with the Central Asian nations, in other words by focusing solely on their own national needs or taking into consideration the needs of the five countries in the region as well-will identify the future leader of Central Asia. As long as China, Russia, and the US see the development of Central Asia merely as tools of their own national interests or for the pursuit of their own ideological goals, the prosperity of the five states will remain in question.Author offers to explain policies of Russia, China and the US in Central Asia through the International Political Economy, thus using insights drawn from the analysis, to draw some general conclusions about their projects’ long-term significance in Central Asia. The interests of the three major actors-the US, Russia and China in Central Asia are examined throughout the period of independence of the countries of the region. However, there is the lack of general studies as the combination economy, politics and security issues, most of the publications are of any single country or only one of the areas of interests, e.g. military-strategic or economic. Thus, the author tried to combine the analysis of security and political economy in Central Asia and has drawn the following provisions:1. Geopolitical feature of the region and the cause of the interest therein of the world powers are rich resource reserves of Central Asia and strategic military position;2. Relations with countries in the region have an impact on the formation of policies of Russia, China and the US, and vice versa, the policies of these three actors have a significant influence on the national interests of the Central Asian republics;3. The US, Russia and China have both matched and opposite interests in the region. Matching interests concern security issues and create the possibility of cooperation among themselves, as well as with the countries of Central Asia. Conflicting interests lead to the conclusion of agreements of each of these countries separately with the countries of Central Asia or to bilateral coordination of action of Russia and China within the SCO.
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