可再生能源发展的经济和环境效应研究 ——以江西省为例

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The development of renewable energy is important to modern society because climate change induced by fossil use has resulted in severe and possibly irreversible environmental impacts.In this study,we employ the lifecycle assessment model to examine the electricity generation from the use of MSW in China,and then investigate the emission reduction from this application.Different supply patterns of the wastes are also compared to make the results more robust.The results show that if recycled wastes are fully utilized,approximately 11,107 GWh can be generated,along with a profit of$1.2 billion from energy sales.In this case,the CO2emission will reduce by 9.7 million metric tons.If the food waste is used in composting and animal feed,the net power generation,and emission reduction are about 8,216 GWh and 7.32million metric tons,respectively.If an additional 30%of recycled wastes are assumed to be utilized in their past use,the power generation,profit,and emission reduction will further decrease to 5,750 GWh,$697 million,and 5.12 metric tons,respectively.The results point out that the utilization of recycled wastes can effectively reduce the reliance on fossil fuels,improve energy security,and increase social welfare.Insights of the results and policy implications are also discussed in detail.Energy sustainability,as well as climate change mitigation,is an immediate challenge facing the world,especially for large developing countries such as China and India.This study analyzes the solar photovoltaic(PV)potential of Jiangxi,China,using three dominant technologies including conventional PV,PV/PCM(Phase Change Material),and PV/T-PCM(Thermal-Phase Change Material).We employ a lifecycle assessment by investigating the spatial differences in radiation conversion rates across major cities and then estimate the emission offset capacity from power generated.Two sets of scenario analyses are also examined:(1)fixed installation capacity;and(2)fixed government investment.Each set has three alternative scenarios to distinguish the power generation potential,investment requirement and emission offset.The results show that under the“fixed capacity”scenarios,the conventional PV can generate 313 GWh per year,and the PV/T-PCM can yield more than 340 GWh per year.The result would change substantially under the“fixed investment”scenarios,in which the annual solar power from conventional PV is more than 1,736 GWh.The scenario analysis points out that if the total investment rather than total capacity is fixed,the power generation and emission reduction from solar PV systems can be maximized,but the total cost would increase considerably as well.Amortization of the installation costs that would potentially alleviate the firms’fiscal burden is also discussed.This study analyses the impact of climate change on sunny hours and radiation strength in Jiangxi province China.We have analyzed the average sunny hour and solar radiation from monthly data from 2009 Jan to 2021 April of Jiangxi province China.After that predicted the sunny hour and solar radiation from the period 2021 May to 2025 Dec by the application of the ARIMA and ARDL models under climate change conditions.We utilized the clouds%,rainy days,temp,solar radiation,average wind speed then forecast the sunny hours and solar radiation under the influence of these variables after that by applying of forecast evaluation we find that from the value of RMSE(Root Means Square Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),MAPE(Mean Abs Percentage Error),Theil inequality coefficient the values of ARDL model is lower than the ARIMA model and ARDL model is most appropriate for forecasting.Potential solar energy generation is calculated under real sunny hours,solar radiation,and under climate change conditions by the application of three different solar technologies(1)conventional PV(2)PV/PCM(Photovoltaic/Phase Change material)(3)PVT/PCM(Photovoltaic Thermal/Phase Change material).The study concludes that the impact of climate change on solar energy generation potential is different in different cities.Like Shangrao,Pingxiang,and Ganzhou shows that electricity generation will be increased,Fuzhou show that only a minor impact will be on future solar energy generation potential while it is predicted that energy generation potential will be decline in the other cities.Real electricity generation potential for the entire Jiangxi province will be 2,635.9,2,747.1,and 2,868.3(k Wh/m~2)from three technologies individually while predicted energy generation potential under climate change conditions will be 2,422.3,2,524.5,and 2,635.7(k Wh/m~2)From PV,PV/PCM,PVT/PCM simultaneously.Electricity generation potential will decline in the future by up to 8%so policymakers should incorporate the climate change impact on power generation so energy will be available smoothly with minimal fluctuation.as well.Amortization of the installation costs that would potentially alleviate the firms’ fiscal burden is also discussed.This study analyses the impact of climate change on sunny hours and radiation strength in Jiangxi province China.We have analyzed the average sunny hour and solar radiation from monthly data from 2009 Jan to 2021 April of Jiangxi province China.After that predicted the sunny hour and solar radiation from the period 2021 May to 2025 Dec by the application of the ARIMA and ARDL models under climate change conditions.We utilized the clouds %,rainy days,temp,solar radiation,average wind speed then forecast the sunny hours and solar radiation under the influence of these variables after that by applying of forecast evaluation we find that from the value of RMSE(Root Means Square Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),MAPE(Mean Abs Percentage Error),Theil inequality coefficient the values of ARDL model is lower than the ARIMA model and ARDL model is most appropriate for forecasting.Potential solar energy generation is calculated under real sunny hours,solar radiation,and under climate change conditions by the application of three different solar technologies(1)conventional PV(2)PV/PCM(Photovoltaic /Phase Change material)(3)PVT/PCM(Photovoltaic Thermal /Phase Change material).The study concludes that the impact of climate change on solar energy generation potential is different in different cities.Like Shangrao,Pingxiang,and Ganzhou shows that electricity generation will be increased,Fuzhou show that only a minor impact will be on future solar energy generation potential while it is predicted that energy generation potential will be decline in the other cities.Real electricity generation potential for the entire Jiangxi province will be 2,635.9,2,747.1,and 2,868.3(k Wh/m2)from three technologies individually while predicted energy generation potential under climate change conditions will be 2,422.3,2,524.5,and 2,635.7(k Wh/m2)From PV,PV/PCM,PVT/PCM simultaneously.Electricity generation potential will decline in the future by up to 8% so policymakers should incorporate the climate change impact on power generation so energy will be available smoothly with minimal fluctuation.
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