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一、前言涉及不确定性的主流经济学观点假设、预期或者是基于对过去数据的统计分析,从而使市场信号提供客观概率的信息,或者以期望效用理论公理建立这些概率的主观感受。例如,麦奇纳(1987)在《经济展望杂志》创刊之作中提出了“不确定性条件下的选择”的观点综述,其中专门用于研究“受试者已具有明确的(即‘客观’)概率,模型具备相应属性的客观概率分布定义”。在其文章的倒数第
I. INTRODUCTION Mainstream economics perspectives on uncertainty assume that expectations are either based on statistical analysis of past data to provide market signals with objective probability information or subjective feelings of expected utility theory axioms. For example, McCainer (1987) put forward an overview of the “Choice of Uncertainty” in the inaugural edition of the Journal of Economic Outlook, which is devoted to the study "Subjects have a clear ( That is, ’objective’) probability, the model has the objective attribute of the corresponding probability distribution of definitions. In the last of its articles