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为了提高导弹剩余寿命预测结果的准确性,本文综合利用导弹的性能退化数据和突发失效时间数据,提出了基于退化失效和突发失效竞争的剩余寿命预测方法。在引入状态空间模型评估出整弹退化程度的基础上,采用Gamma过程建立退化失效模型;在假定突发失效概率与整弹性能退化程度相关的前提下,采用Weibull分布建立突发失效模型;进而建立退化失效与突发失效竞争模式下的导弹可靠度模型。案例应用证明了所提方法的有效性,对准确预测导弹剩余寿命,有效开展视情维修具有一定的工程价值。
In order to improve the accuracy of predicting the remaining life of missiles, this paper proposes a method of remaining life prediction based on degenerative failure and sudden failure competition by comprehensively utilizing the performance degradation data and the burst failure time data of missiles. On the basis of introducing the state space model to evaluate the degenerative degree of bullet, a Gamma process is used to establish a degenerate failure model. Based on the assumption that the failure probability is related to the degeneration degree of the whole elasticity, a Weibull distribution is used to establish a burst failure model. Establishing a model of missile reliability under the mode of degenerative failure and sudden failure competition. The application of the case proves the validity of the proposed method. It has certain engineering value for accurately predicting the remaining life of the missile and carrying out the condition-based maintenance.