美国中部的大平部的大平原土寺肥沃、物产丰饶、享有“面包蓝”的美誉
　　在环保意识不断提高的今天，由粮食作特加工而成的物生物燃料日益受到重视，一场变革也正在大平原上蓬勃兴起。大量的农产品而送到燃料加工厂加工成汽车燃料，供水人和动物食用的农产品因而出现紧缺，价格也急剧上涨。这场变革有哪些原因，规模如何，会带来什么样的影响呢？它是否真的会导致世界粮良危机呢？
　　
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　　 　he mile uponm of tall maize waving to thehorizon around the small Nebraskan townof Carleton 100ks perfect to farmers SUChas Mark JageIs．He alld his father work 10square kilometres。f 1and．The price of malze--what the Americans call"corn"一has never been higher and thefuture has seldom seemed brighter．Carlet。n is boomingWI’th$200 milllon of Califorman 1Ttoney put up for a nev—biof—uel factory．After severaI s10W years,七here is mewfuU—time，weIl—Paid work for 50 people． There is a Prob Jem，though．The same fields thatsurroundthe Jagels’house on—the Great Plains arebFinging new money to America's farmlands，butthey are alSO helping to pUSh uP the Price of bread inManchesteL tortjllas in Mexlco Citv and beer in MadridAs a direct result of what is happenm‘g in places likeNebraska，Kansas，Indlana and OKLahoma，food aid forthe Poorest people in SOUthern Africa，pork in Chinaand beefin B ritain are a11 more expensive． Challenged by Presldent George W.BUSh toprodUCO 132 bjJljion litres of non—fossil transport fuel。bv 201 7 t0 reduce US dedendencv on imDorted 0i1．thebreadbasket of the world is graduaIly belng turnedinto an enormous fuel tank．Come harvest time inSeptembe almost a11 the maize croP Wi11 end uP atthe new factory at Carleton，where it Wli11 be fermentedinto ethanoL a cleaL co1ourless alcoho1 consumed notby people，butby cars．
　　“Agrofuels”have arrived In Nebraska alone，anextra 4，000 sq km of maize were planted last year whichWill produce nearly four billion 1itres of ethanol Acrossthe US，20 Per ceilt of the maize crop Wellt to ethan01 in2[)(]6 HOW much is that?Two per cent of US anton]obileuse．A1l this i。part of a global green trend however．Asthe US，Europe，China Japan and other COUrttrl’es arebeginnlng to use 10 per cent or more alternativeautomobile fuels，farmers everywhere are hurrying togrow maize，SUgar cane，o．1 palms and oilseed rape allof which can be turmd mfo e出anol or 0fher biofuelsBut that means getting OUt of 0ther crops
　　
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　　马克·杰格尔这样的农民看来，内布拉斯加州的小镇卡尔顿周围绵延数里直通天际的玉米地令人心旷神怡。他和他父亲耕种着这里10平方公里的土地。玉米的价格一路上涨，前景一片光明。有加利福利亚人出资2亿美元在卡尔顿投资兴建了一座生物燃料工厂，这座小镇正因此而迅速发展。经过几年的缓慢发展之后，这里已经有了50份全职、高薪水的新工作。
　　但是有一个问题。大平原上杰格尔家附近的这片田野在为美国农场创造新利润的同时，也推动了世界各地的粮食价格，如曼彻斯特的面包、墨西哥城的玉米粉圆饼还有马德里的啤酒。内布拉斯加州、堪萨斯州、印地安那州和俄克拉何马州所发生的一切的直接后果是，对南非贫民的粮食援助、中国的猪肉和英国的牛肉都变得更加昂贵。
　　美国总统乔治·布什提出到2017年要将美国非化石交通燃料的产量提高到l，320亿升，从而减小美国对进口石油的依赖。这样～来，有着“世界面包篮”美誉的火平原就将渐渐变成巨大的燃料箱。到了9月份庄稼成熟的季节，几乎所有收割卜来的玉米都会被送到卡尔顿的新工厂。在那里，它们将被发酵成乙醇——一种清洁的、无色的酒精，消费者不是人，而是汽车。
　　“农产燃料”的时代已经到来。仅在内布拉斯加州，去年就增种了4，000平方公里的玉米，可以生产近40亿升的乙醇。在整个美国，2006年全部玉米产量的20％都被加工成了乙醇。这到底有多少呢？占了美国全年车用燃料的2％。然而，所有这些只是世界环保潮流的一部分。由于美国、欧洲、中国、日本以及其他一些国家打算将10％甚至更多的汽车燃料换成替代品，世界各地的农民正在加紧种植玉米、甘蔗、油椰 子和油菜等作物，这些作物都能被加工成乙醇或其他生物燃料。但这样做就意味着逐渐放弃利植其他作物。
　　The changes are Immense．The Indlan government s。ys it wants to plan 140.000 sq km of biofuel crops，Brazil as much as 1.2 million sq km. SOUthern Africais sald to be the future Middle East of biofuels，Wlth asmuch as4ml。11ion sq km oflandteadyt。beusedforcroPs SUCh as Jatropha Curcas (phySic nut)，a tough P1anthat can be gtown on Poor land Indonesl’a has said itintends to produce more than Malaysl‘a by lncreassingit。Palm oil Production from 64.000 sq km now to260，000 sq km in 2025．
　　While this may be slightly better for CO,rb01"lenll’SSl’OnS and energy securlty it is proving terrible forfood prices and anyone who stallds in the way of a faslgrowlng new industry.A year or two ago，alnl08t a11the 1and in the US where maize is now belng gtown toinake ethanol was farlned for hulnan or alll’mal food：alld since America is the world's largest exporter ofmaize，the price has dOUbled in 10 months，and that ofwheat has risen by abont 50 per cent．
　　"In 1ast June，wheat prices across the US alldEuroPe hit their highest 1evels in more than a decade"says Mark HⅢfr01TI the consulting firrn Deloicfe．“These Pri‘ceincreases are 1ikely to trigger innation infood prices，as processors are forced to Pay increasedCOSts for basl’c ingredlents SUCh as corn and wheat．"
　　British flour 1TIl’11ers，for example，need 5.5 milliontonnes of wheat a year to produce the 12 millon loavesSOld each day in the UK．MOSt of this wheat is grosvnin Britain，and in the Past year milling—wheat Pricesmoved from around￡100 to￡200 a tonne．The price ofa stalldard HOViS loaf rose from fo 93 to￡O.99 in lastFebruary and more increases Wi11 be conllng，the firmsays，In France，consumers have a1SO been warned t11atthel。baguettes Wi11 be more expensiveCheap food is a thing of the Past，says Hill．Worldcommodity prices of sngar m11k and Cocoa have allrecently gone up．"Meat，too，w11l COSt more，because chicken and Pigs are fed 1argely on grain"says HiII．"And whik anyone growm’g grai‘ns Will be better offdairy alld ljvestock producers nlay well struggle in thls envlronment．"
　　The surge in demand for agrofuels SUCh as ethan01is hitting the poor alld the environment hardest ofa11．The UN World Food Programme，which feeds abOUt 90 mllli01-1 peopk 1TIOStIy Wlth US maize，saysthat 850 miUiOil people around the world are alreadyundernourlshed．There W111 SOOll be more because theprice of food aid has increased by 20 Per cellt in just a year．Meanwhile，Indian food Prices have risen by11 per cent in a year．SOUth AfrI’Ca has seen fo。d—prl。cerises Of nearly 17 per cent．
　　In the US，which has nearly 40 mlUion Poor People，the Department of Agrlculture recen1y sal’d it expectsto see a 10 per cent rise in the Price of chicken.Thepri’ces of bread，beee eggs and milk rose by 7.5 Per Celltin last JulM the highest nlonthly rise for 25 years
　　“The COrnpebfion for gram between the world’s 800 m11lion PAotorists，who wan to rllaIntain thelrmobility and its two billiOil poorest peoPle，whoare SirePly to ying to survive,is becomling an epicissue,"says Lester Browr,presl‘dellt of Washington'sWorldwatch Institute think tank and author of the bookWho Will Feed Chinan?
　　Things are not gomg t。get any bette says BrownThe UN’s World F00d 0rgam’zation Predicts that thedemand for biofLiels will grow by 170 per cent in thenext thFee years．A seParate report fr01TI the OECD,the club of the world’s 30 tichest coun[rl’es，suggestedfood—prl’ce rises of between 20 per cent and 50 per cen[over fhe nest decade
　　变化是巨大的。印度政府声称将种植14万平方公里的生物燃料作物，巴西政府则说要种植120万平方公里。据说南部非洲将来会成为生物燃料的“中东地区一，因为它准备将多达400万平方公里的土地用于种植麻疯树，一种可以在贫瘠的土二壤里生长的坚韧植物。印度尼西亚已经表示要在2025年以前把油椰子的种植而积从现在的6.4万平方公里扩大到26万平方公里，从而超过马来西亚的生物燃料产量。
　　这些变化或许对二氧化碳的排放和能源安全略微有些好处，但对于粮食价格和任何阻碍这个新兴产业的人来说却糟糕透顶。在美国，现在为生产乙醇而种植玉米的土地在一两年以前几乎全部是用来生产供人或动物消费的粮食的。而且，因为美国是世界最大的玉米出口国，世界玉米价格在10个月内翻了一倍，小麦价格也上涨了约50％。
　　“去年6月，美国和欧洲各国的小麦价格达到了十多年来的最高点，”德勤咨询公司的马克西尔说，“这些价格卜涨有可能引发食品价格的飞涨，因为粮食加工企业不得不为玉米、小麦这样的基本原料付出更高的成本。一
　　举个例子，英国的而粉加工厂每年需要550万吨小麦来生产在英国每天出售的l，200万个面包。其中大部分的小麦产自英国。在过去一年的时间里，制粉用的小麦价格从每吨大约100英镑涨到了每吨200英镑。去年2月，一块标准大小的霍维斯面包的价格从0．93英镑涨到了0.99英镑，而且据德勤公司说，价格还会继续上涨。在法国，消费者们也收到了他们的棍子面包价格将要上涨的警告。
　　西尔说廉价食品将一去不复返了。糖、牛奶和可可粉的全球价格最近都上涨了。“肉类的价格也会上涨，因为鸡和猪都主要靠谷物喂养，”西尔说，“虽然种植谷物的人将获得更多收入，但乳制品生产和家畜饲养行业的人们却将度日艰难。”
　　因乙醇等农产燃料需求增加而遭受打击最大的是穷人和环境。主要靠美国玉米养活全球9，000万贫困人口的联合国世界粮食计划署称，目前全球已有8．5亿人营养不良。这个数字很快还会增加，因为粮食援助的成本在短短一年的时间里就上涨了20％。与此同时，印度的食品价格一年内上涨了11％，南非食品价格上涨了近17％。
　　美国有着4，000万穷人，然而美国农业部最近表示鸡肉价格将上调10％。面包、牛肉、鸡蛋和牛奶的价格在去年7月份上涨了7.5％，是25年来一个月之内上涨最多的一次。
　　“一方面全球8亿机动车驾驶者希望能继续驾驶，另一方面20亿穷人想要活命，这两者之间对谷物的竞争正成为重要的时代课题，”华盛顿世界观察研究所所长、《谁来养活中国？》一书的作者莱斯特·布朗说。
　　布朗认为局势不会有任何好转。联合国世界粮食组织预测，生物燃料的需求量在今后三年将增加170％。而另一份来自经济合作与发展组织——世界30个最富国家的俱乐部——的报告则预示，今后lO年食品价格将有20％到50％的涨幅。
　　A "Perfect storlli" of ecoIOgical and Soclal factorsaPPears t。be gatherlng force，threatenlng huge Rumbersof People wlth f00d shortages and Price rises．Even asthe world’s big farmers are pulling out Of producingfood f0。peoPle and anl’mals，the g10bal poPulation isrising by 87 million peoPle a year; devel。Pi“g countriesSUCh as China and India are switching to meat—baseddiets that need more Iandj alld climate change is startingto hit f。od Producers hard Recent reports in the journal。SCleHce and Nature SUggest that a third of ocean fisherlesare in COllapse；DeVO thirds will be in COll。Pse by 2025;alld all m ajor ocean fisherles may be gone by 2048．
　　“GIobaI grain SUPplles Will drop to thelf lowestlevels on record“llS year 0utside of wartime，they havenot been this 10w in a celrturv.perhaPs 1onger"says theUS Department of Agrlculture．In seven of the past eightyears，the world has actually grown less grain than ithas consumed，says Brown World stOCks of grain--thatis，the food 11eld in reserve for ti‘mes of emergency——are nOW SLffcient for just over 50 days．According to exPerts，we are in " thepost—f00d—surplUS era"
　　The food crisis，Brown warns，is only iustbeginnmg．What worries hlnl as much as the newC01TIPetitlon between food and fuel is that the boomingC11lnese and Indlan poPulations--the two lagestnations in the world，xArIth nearly 40 per cent 0f theworld’s population between them--are goving uP theitraditional vegetable—tich dlets for typical"American"diets teat contain more meat and dairy products Mealdemand in China ha。gone“P by 300 per cent in30 years，and in India，m11k and egg Products areincreasingly pOPuIar.
　　In itsele this is no problelTt，say Brown and others，excePt that it means an increased demand f。r water t。grOW more food．It takes seven kiIograms of grain toproduce one kil。gram of beeef and increased dernandWill require huge alIlOUnts of grail]一growlng land．MUCofthis，of course，WI’11haveto bewatered“Water tableare now falling in countries that contain over haIf theworld's people"Brown PoInts out．“While numerousariaIysts and P1icy—iliakers are concerned about afuture 0f water shortages，few have really understoodthat a future of water shortages means a future of food’shortages" New figures from the World Bank，he says，showthat 15 per cent of the world’s present food SUpplies，011 which 160 mllIion PeoPle depend，are belnggrown Wlth water drawn from r。pidly decreasl’ngUllderground sources or fron]rivers tha are dryingup Water scientists around the world。gree cha0 withthe earth’s wate land and humanresources，it WOUld be POSSIble to produce enough f。od for the future．"But it is probable that today’s foodprodUCtion and environmental trendsWill 1ead to crisesinmany parts Ofthe WOrld，"adds Davld M0lden，atop official at the International Water Management Institute．
　　Meanwh．1e，climate change is 1eadingtO more intense rains,unPredictablestorms，Ionger-1asting droughts，andinterrupted seasons In Brltal‘n，the severefloods in 1ast summer have resulted in ashortage of vegetables SUCh as potatoes，and cereals such aswheat This came on top of a 4.9 percent rise in food prices in the year to May--well overconsulaaer price inflation--and a 9.6 per cent in creasein vegetable prices，
　　Britain will be fine，but elsewhere climate change is acatastrophe．Madagascar suffered from seven Gvclonesin the first SiX months of 2007.Predictable weather isbecoming a thing of the past How does the global foodsupply system deal with such changing risk?
　　
　　G1obal grain sMpplies have not been
　　as low as they are today for at least
　　a century
　　
　　一场生态和社会因素导致的“完美风暴”似乎正在酝酿之中，它带来的食品短缺和价格上涨将威胁到亿万人的生存。在世界主要粮食生产国缩减供人畜消费的粮食的产量之时，全球人u却以每年8，700万的速度增K；中国和印度这样的发展中国家正在朝肉类为丰的饮食结构转变，这就意味着需要更多的土地；气候变化也开始严重影响粮食生产。《科学》和《自然》等期刊的最新文章指出，三分之一的海洋渔业正濒临崩溃，到2025年三分之二的海洋渔业将崩溃，到2048年所有主要的海洋渔业将不复存在。
　　美国农业部说，“今年全球谷物供给量将降至有记录以来的最低点。除了战争时期以外，一百多年里都没有过比现在更低的时候了。”布朗也指出，在过去的八年中有七年，全球谷物的生产量都低于消费量。世界谷物储备——也就是为紧急困难时期储备的粮食—— 目前只够支持五十多天。按照～些专家的说法，我们正处在“粮食过剩后时代”。
　　布朗警告说粮食危机才刚刚开始。除了食物和燃料之间新出现的竞争之外，还有一件事情让他同样担忧：中国和印度——这两个拥有世界40％人口的大国——迅速增长的人口正在放弃他们传统的以蔬菜为主的饮食结构，转向包含更多肉奶制品的典型“美国式”饮食结构。中国的肉食需求在过去30年里增长了300％，而在印度，蛋奶制品也越来越受欢迎。
　　布朗和其他专家认为这本身并不是问题，只是这意味着需要更多的水来种植更多的粮食。生产一公斤牛肉要消耗七公斤谷物，需求的不断增长将需要大量用于种植谷物的土地；而这些耕地理所当然地需要水去灌溉。布朗指出，“全球一半以上的人口所在国家的地下水位正在下降。尽管无数分析家和政策制定者们为未来水资源的紧缺担忧，但是只有极少数人真正懂得，未来的水资源紧缺就意味着未来的粮食紧缺。”
　　他说世界银行的最新数据表明，目前世界粮食供应的15％所依靠的是正在急剧减少的地下水源或JE在干涸的河流，而这部分粮食养活着1.6亿人口。吐界各地的水科学家都认为，以目前地球的水资源、十地资源和人力资源，将来有生产足够食物的可能性。“但是，今天的粮食生产方式和环境趋势有可能导致世界上很多区域面临危机。”国际水资源管理研究所的高级官员大卫·摩尔登补充说道。
　　同时，气候变化正带来更多的大雨、无、祛预测的风暴、更长时间的干旱和不规律的季节更替。在英国，去年夏季的洪水已导致英国蔬菜和谷物紧缺，比如土豆和小麦。而就在那之前，粮食价格到当年5月份已经上涨了4.9％ 一远远高于消费品整体价恪的上涨——而蔬菜价格则上涨了9.6％。
　　英国的情况还不算糟糕，但在其他一些地方，气候变化就是一场灾难。马达加斯加去年上半年经历了七次飓风袭击。预测天气的时代已经一去不复返了。世界粮食供应体系应该如何面对这样不断变化的风险呢？
　　The answer is：with ever-greater difficulty．TheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictsthat raindependent agriculture could be cut in half bV 2020 as a result of climate change．"Anythmg even close to a 50 per cent reduction in vields would mean huge problems,"says Iosette Sheeran,new director ofthe World Food Programme．Within a week，Lesotho had declared a food emergency after the worst droughtin 30 years and after greatly reduced harvests in nelghbouring Sourh Africa had pushed prices wellbeyond the reach of most of the population． All this is far too negati‘ve，say other analysts andpoliticians．Early 20007 Brazil's president,Luiz Lula.told The Guardian that there was no need at aU forworld food shortages，or for any destruction of foreststo grow more food．"Brazil has 320 million hectares[3.2 million sq kin] of arable land，only a fiffh of which iScultivated．Of this，less than four per cent is used forethanol production This is not a choice between food and energy"
　　Others say that the food-price rlses nOW beingseen are temporary and will fall back within。yearas the market responds．Technologists are lookingto genetically modified crops,or drought-resistantcrops，or trust that biofuel producers will developtechnologies that require less raw material。r use theparts of food that cannot be eaten The answer for nOWis that countries such as Argentina，Poland，Ukraineand Kazakhstan will grow more food for export as theUS reduces its output
　　Back on the Great Plains，meanwhile，ethanol feveris running high In 2006．there were fewer than 100ethanol factories in the whole of the United States，with a combined production capacity of 19 billion litresAt least 50 more new plants are now being built,andat least 300 more are planned．If even half of them arefinished，they will help to rewrite the politics。f globalfood.
　　答案是：困难会越来越大。根据歧府间气候变化小组的预测，由于气候变化，到2020年依靠自然雨水的农业生产将减少一半。“减产即使不到50％也将导致巨大的困难，”眭!=界粮食计划署的新任执行主任约瑟特施林说。(去年)莱索托在经历了30年以来最严重的干旱之后不到一周，便宣布国家进入粮食紧急状态，之前其邻国南非的粮食大幅减产已经将粮食价格抬升到让老百姓难以接受的水平。
　　有些分析家和政客认为这种观点太过消极。去年 年初，巴西总统路易斯卢拉告诉《卫报》记者，世界粮食紧缺根本不可能出现，也没有破坏森林获取耕地的必要。他说，“巴西有3.2亿公顷(320万平方公里)的可耕地，其中只有五分之一用来牛产粮食，而这其中用来生产乙醇的土地还占不到4％……粮食和燃料完全可以兼得。”
　　还有人认为，目前的粮食涨价只是暂时现象，通过市场调整，一年之内价格就会跌回来。技术々家们则或者把希望放在转基因作物或耐旱作物的开发上，或者相信生物燃料生产厂家会开发出少用原料或利用粮食中不能食用的部分来牛产的技术。而目前权宜的办法只能靠阿根廷、波兰、乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦这样的国家多生产粮食以供出口，从而弥补美国粮食出口的缩减。
　　回到美国的大平原上，乙醇热正方兴未艾，发展得热火朝天。2006年，全美国只有不到100家乙醇工厂，生产能力加起来只有190亿升。现在至少有50座新厂正在建设，还有300座正在规划。即使只有一半得以建成，它们也将改写全球的粮食格局。Moe abort Biofuels...
　　
　　
　　 Producing Ethamol from Corm and Other
　　Crops IsNot Worth the Energy
　　用玉米和其他作物生产乙醇是能源的浪费
　　
　　Tuming pIants such as com，soybeans and sunflowersinfo fuel uses much more energy than fhe resultingefhanol or biOdiesel generates，according to a newComell UniVersity and UnIVersity of California—BerkeleysfudV"There is iusf no energy benefif fo using planfbiomassfor jlqujd fueI，”says David PimenleI，p rofesspr ofecology and ag riculture at Cornell"These sfrafegies a renot sustainable"PimenfeI and Tad WPatzek，D rOfess0 r 0f civil 0ndenvirOnmental engineering af Berkelev,cOnducfed adelailed analysis Of fhe energy input-yield ratios Ofproducing ethanOI from corn，switch g rass and wOOdblOmass as well as for producing biOdieseI fromsoybean and sunflower planfsIn terms Of energy outpuf compa red with energy inpuffor ethanOl prOducfiOn，the ST。udy fOund fhaf：
　　 comrequi res 29 percenl more fassil energy fhan fhefueI D rOduced：
　　swjfch g rass requires 45 perce nf mO re fOSSil energyfhan fhe fueI p roduced：and
　　 wood biomass requirees 57 percenl mOre fOSSiI energythan the fueI prOduced.
　　
　　The Future of Biofueels IS Not In Corn
　　 生物燃料的未来不是玉米
　　The tuture Of b1ofUeIs 1s n01 ln corn，says a new report releasedfoday by FOOd＆Water Warch，fhe Netwo rk for New EnergyChoices，and the Vermont Law SchooI Insfufe for Energy and fhe EnvirOnme n1丁he com efhonOI ref nery industry.willnot signmcanfly 0ffset U.S.fOSSil fueI consumption withhoU1
　　unacceptable environmenlaI and econOmic cOnseauences"Rising oiI p rices，energy securify，and gIobal wa rming concemshave 1ed to fodays’ao yellow’hype over com ethanol"expIafned Scoff"CUflen，5enio r Policy AdvisOr for fhe Nek,vork for New Ene『ay Choices“Bul aIl biOfUels are nof equal Expansion of fhe com efhanai lndusfrv w…1ead fo more wafer and airpollufiOn and soll erOsion Of America's farm belt，whiIe failinq tosigncantly offset fossil fuel use Or cOmbaf gIObal warming"The reporf，"The Rush to Ethanol：Not all BioFuels are Equal".isa comDrehenslVe reView Of the IiterafU re On fhe envirOnmenfaland econOmic implicalions DT pinning our hopes on comefhanol to reduce dependency On fossll fueIs Report findingsinclLde fhe f 0llO Wing：
　　N01 all biofueIs a re eauaI Com——now used to produce95 Derce nf of U.S. ethan01-is the leasf susfainable biOfueIfeeds—tock of all raw maferials cOmmOnIv used
　　 The capOCIT Of corm efhanol foo offset U.S.fOSSil ruel use is eXtremeIy Iimiled Dedlcating fhe entirer U.S.com crop fOefhanOl prOductlion would Only offset5 perce nf Of gasOlinedemand Conversely,modest increases in aulO fueI efficiencvsfandards of even 0ne mile per qallon fOr all Cars and 1iqhftrcls，such as fhose passed by fhe senate last monfh couId cufpelroleum cOnsumptiOn by more fhan all altenative fuels andreDlaceme nf fueIs combined
　　com efhanol ls the wrong biofuel for combating gIobalwarming The mos}faV0rable esfimafes show that corn efhanolcould reduce g reenhouse gos emissions by 18 pe rcenf fo 28pe rcent，wh_le—cellu—losic ethanol is estimated fo offer a reduc"onof 87 percent compared to gas01ine
　　Efhonol is not fhe solufion to revitalizing ruraI America Whilehigher commodity prices and cooperafivefy owned efhanoIreflneries couId be a boon to independe nf farmers．unregulatedethanol industry growth will furher—conce—ntrate agribusiness，threafeninq fhe Iivelihood of rUral communitiesThe Coming 迫在眉睫的糖食危机
　　John Vidaf
　　
　　美国中部的大平部的大平原土寺肥沃、物产丰饶、享有“面包蓝”的美誉
　　在环保意识不断提高的今天，由粮食作特加工而成的物生物燃料日益受到重视，一场变革也正在大平原上蓬勃兴起。大量的农产品而送到燃料加工厂加工成汽车燃料，供水人和动物食用的农产品因而出现紧缺，价格也急剧上涨。这场变革有哪些原因，规模如何，会带来什么样的影响呢？它是否真的会导致世界粮良危机呢？
　　
　　T
　　 　he mile uponm of tall maize waving to thehorizon around the small Nebraskan townof Carleton 100ks perfect to farmers SUChas Mark JageIs．He alld his father work 10square kilometres。f 1and．The price of malze--what the Americans call"corn"一has never been higher and thefuture has seldom seemed brighter．Carlet。n is boomingWI’th$200 milllon of Califorman 1Ttoney put up for a nev—biof—uel factory．After severaI s10W years,七here is mewfuU—time，weIl—Paid work for 50 people． There is a Prob Jem，though．The same fields thatsurroundthe Jagels’house on—the Great Plains arebFinging new money to America's farmlands，butthey are alSO helping to pUSh uP the Price of bread inManchesteL tortjllas in Mexlco Citv and beer in MadridAs a direct result of what is happenm‘g in places likeNebraska，Kansas，Indlana and OKLahoma，food aid forthe Poorest people in SOUthern Africa，pork in Chinaand beefin B ritain are a11 more expensive． Challenged by Presldent George W.BUSh toprodUCO 132 bjJljion litres of non—fossil transport fuel。bv 201 7 t0 reduce US dedendencv on imDorted 0i1．thebreadbasket of the world is graduaIly belng turnedinto an enormous fuel tank．Come harvest time inSeptembe almost a11 the maize croP Wi11 end uP atthe new factory at Carleton，where it Wli11 be fermentedinto ethanoL a cleaL co1ourless alcoho1 consumed notby people，butby cars．
　　“Agrofuels”have arrived In Nebraska alone，anextra 4，000 sq km of maize were planted last year whichWill produce nearly four billion 1itres of ethanol Acrossthe US，20 Per ceilt of the maize crop Wellt to ethan01 in2[)(]6 HOW much is that?Two per cent of US anton]obileuse．A1l this i。part of a global green trend however．Asthe US，Europe，China Japan and other COUrttrl’es are beginnlng to use 10 per cent or more alternativeautomobile fuels，farmers everywhere are hurrying togrow maize，SUgar cane，o．1 palms and oilseed rape allof which can be turmd mfo e出anol or 0fher biofuelsBut that means getting OUt of 0ther crops
　　
　　在
　　
　　马克·杰格尔这样的农民看来，内布拉斯加州的小镇卡尔顿周围绵延数里直通天际的玉米地令人心旷神怡。他和他父亲耕种着这里10平方公里的土地。玉米的价格一路上涨，前景一片光明。有加利福利亚人出资2亿美元在卡尔顿投资兴建了一座生物燃料工厂，这座小镇正因此而迅速发展。经过几年的缓慢发展之后，这里已经有了50份全职、高薪水的新工作。
　　但是有一个问题。大平原上杰格尔家附近的这片田野在为美国农场创造新利润的同时，也推动了世界各地的粮食价格，如曼彻斯特的面包、墨西哥城的玉米粉圆饼还有马德里的啤酒。内布拉斯加州、堪萨斯州、印地安那州和俄克拉何马州所发生的一切的直接后果是，对南非贫民的粮食援助、中国的猪肉和英国的牛肉都变得更加昂贵。
　　美国总统乔治·布什提出到2017年要将美国非化石交通燃料的产量提高到l，320亿升，从而减小美国对进口石油的依赖。这样～来，有着“世界面包篮”美誉的火平原就将渐渐变成巨大的燃料箱。到了9月份庄稼成熟的季节，几乎所有收割卜来的玉米都会被送到卡尔顿的新工厂。在那里，它们将被发酵成乙醇——一种清洁的、无色的酒精，消费者不是人，而是汽车。
　　“农产燃料”的时代已经到来。仅在内布拉斯加州，去年就增种了4，000平方公里的玉米，可以生产近40亿升的乙醇。在整个美国，2006年全部玉米产量的20％都被加工成了乙醇。这到底有多少呢？占了美国全年车用燃料的2％。然而，所有这些只是世界环保潮流的一部分。由于美国、欧洲、中国、日本以及其他一些国家打算将10％甚至更多的汽车燃料换成替代品，世界各地的农民正在加紧种植玉米、甘蔗、油椰子和油菜等作物，这些作物都能被加工成乙醇或其他生物燃料。但这样做就意味着逐渐放弃利植其他作物。
　　The changes are Immense．The Indlan government s。ys it wants to plan 140.000 sq km of biofuel crops，Brazil as much as 1.2 million sq km. SOUthern Africais sald to be the future Middle East of biofuels，Wlth asmuch as4ml。11ion sq km oflandteadyt。beusedforcroPs SUCh as Jatropha Curcas (phySic nut)，a tough P1anthat can be gtown on Poor land Indonesl’a has said itintends to produce more than Malaysl‘a by lncreassingit。Palm oil Production from 64.000 sq km now to260，000 sq km in 2025．
　　While this may be slightly better for CO,rb01"lenll’SSl’OnS and energy securlty it is proving terrible forfood prices and anyone who stallds in the way of a faslgrowlng new industry.A year or two ago，alnl08t a11the 1and in the US where maize is now belng gtown toinake ethanol was farlned for hulnan or alll’mal food：alld since America is the world's largest exporter ofmaize，the price has dOUbled in 10 months，and that ofwheat has risen by abont 50 per cent．
　　"In 1ast June，wheat prices across the US alldEuroPe hit their highest 1evels in more than a decade"says Mark HⅢfr01TI the consulting firrn Deloicfe．“These Pri‘ceincreases are 1ikely to trigger innation infood prices，as processors are forced to Pay increasedCOSts for basl’c ingredlents SUCh as corn and wheat．"
　　British flour 1TIl’11ers，for example，need 5.5 milliontonnes of wheat a year to produce the 12 millon loavesSOld each day in the UK．MOSt of this wheat is grosvnin Britain，and in the Past year milling—wheat Pricesmoved from around￡100 to￡200 a tonne．The price ofa stalldard HOViS loaf rose from fo 93 to￡O.99 in lastFebruary and more increases Wi11 be conllng，the firmsays，In France，consumers have a1SO been warned t11atthel。baguettes Wi11 be more expensiveCheap food is a thing of the Past，says Hill．Worldcommodity prices of sngar m11k and Cocoa have allrecently gone up．"Meat，too，w11l COSt more，because chicken and Pigs are fed 1argely on grain"says HiII．"And whik anyone growm’g grai‘ns Will be better offdairy alld ljvestock producers nlay well struggle in thls envlronment．"
　　The surge in demand for agrofuels SUCh as ethan01is hitting the poor alld the environment hardest ofa11．The UN World Food Programme，which feeds abOUt 90 mllli01-1 peopk 1TIOStIy Wlth US maize，saysthat 850 miUiOil people around the world are alreadyundernourlshed．There W111 SOOll be more because theprice of food aid has increased by 20 Per cellt in just a year．Meanwhile，Indian food Prices have risen by11 per cent in a year．SOUth AfrI’Ca has seen fo。d—prl。cerises Of nearly 17 per cent．
　　In the US，which has nearly 40 mlUion Poor People，the Department of Agrlculture recen1y sal’d it expectsto see a 10 per cent rise in the Price of chicken.Thepri’ces of bread，beee eggs and milk rose by 7.5 Per Celltin last JulM the highest nlonthly rise for 25 years
　　“The COrnpebfion for gram between the world’s 800m11lion PAotorists，who wan to rllaIntain thelrmobility and its two billiOil poorest peoPle，whoare SirePly to ying to survive,is becomling an epicissue,"says Lester Browr,presl‘dellt of Washington'sWorldwatch Institute think tank and author of the bookWho Will Feed Chinan?
　　Things are not gomg t。get any bette says BrownThe UN’s World F00d 0rgam’zation Predicts that thedemand for biofLiels will grow by 170 per cent in thenext thFee years．A seParate report fr01TI the OECD,the club of the world’s 30 tichest coun[rl’es，suggestedfood—prl’ce rises of between 20 per cent and 50 per cen[over fhe nest decade
　　变化是巨大的。印度政府声称将种植14万平方公里的生物燃料作物，巴西政府则说要种植120万平方公里。据说南部非洲将来会成为生物燃料的“中东地区一，因为它准备将多达400万平方公里的土地用于种植麻疯树，一种可以在贫瘠的土二壤里生长的坚韧植物。印度尼西亚已经表示要在2025年以前把油椰子的种植而积从现在的6.4万平方公里扩大到26万平方公里，从而超过马来西亚的生物燃料产量。
　　这些变化或许对二氧化碳的排放和能源安全略微有些好处，但对于粮食价格和任何阻碍这个新兴产业的人来说却糟糕透顶。在美国，现在为生产乙醇而种植玉米的土地在一两年以前几乎全部是用来生产供人或动物消费的粮食的。而且，因为美国是世界最大的玉米出口国，世界玉米价格在10个月内翻了一倍，小麦价格也上涨了约50％。
　　“去年6月，美国和欧洲各国的小麦价格达到了十多年来的最高点，”德勤咨询公司的马克西尔说，“这些价格卜涨有可能引发食品价格的飞涨，因为粮食加工企业不得不为玉米、小麦这样的基本原料付出更高的成本。一
　　举个例子，英国的而粉加工厂每年需要550万吨小麦来生产在英国每天出售的l，200万个面包。其中大部分的小麦产自英国。在过去一年的时间里，制粉用的小麦价格从每吨大约100英镑涨到了每吨200英镑。去年2月，一块标准大小的霍维斯面包的价格从0．93英镑涨到了0.99英镑，而且据德勤公司说，价格还会继续上涨。在法国，消费者们也收到了他们的棍子面包价格将要上涨的警告。
　　西尔说廉价食品将一去不复返了。糖、牛奶和可可粉的全球价格最近都上涨了。“肉类的价格也会上涨，因为鸡和猪都主要靠谷物喂养，”西尔说，“虽然种植谷物的人将获得更多收入，但乳制品生产和家畜饲养行业的人们却将度日艰难。”
　　因乙醇等农产燃料需求增加而遭受打击最大的是穷人和环境。主要靠美国玉米养活全球9，000万贫困人口的联合国世界粮食计划署称，目前全球已有8．5亿人营养不良。这个数字很快还会增加，因为粮食援助的成本在短短一年的时间里就上涨了20％。与此同时，印度的食品价格一年内上涨了11％，南非食品价格上涨了近17％。
　　美国有着4，000万穷人，然而美国农业部最近表示鸡肉价格将上调10％。面包、牛肉、鸡蛋和牛奶的价格在去年7月份上涨了7.5％，是25年来一个月之内上涨最多的一次。
　　“一方面全球8亿机动车驾驶者希望能继续驾驶，另一方面20亿穷人想要活命，这两者之间对谷物的竞争正成为重要的时代课题，”华盛顿世界观察研究所所长、《谁来养活中国？》一书的作者莱斯特·布朗说。
　　布朗认为局势不会有任何好转。联合国世界粮食组织预测，生物燃料的需求量在今后三年将增加170％。而另一份来自经济合作与发展组织——世界30个最富国家的俱乐部——的报告则预示，今后lO年食品价格将有20％到50％的涨幅。
　　A "Perfect storlli" of ecoIOgical and Soclal factors aPPears t。be gatherlng force，threatenlng huge Rumbersof People wlth f00d shortages and Price rises．Even asthe world’s big farmers are pulling out Of producingfood f0。peoPle and anl’mals，the g10bal poPulation isrising by 87 million peoPle a year; devel。Pi“g countriesSUCh as China and India are switching to meat—baseddiets that need more Iandj alld climate change is startingto hit f。od Producers hard Recent reports in the journal。SCleHce and Nature SUggest that a third of ocean fisherlesare in COllapse；DeVO thirds will be in COll。Pse by 2025;alld all m ajor ocean fisherles may be gone by 2048．
　　“GIobaI grain SUPplles Will drop to thelf lowestlevels on record“llS year 0utside of wartime，they havenot been this 10w in a celrturv.perhaPs 1onger"says theUS Department of Agrlculture．In seven of the past eightyears，the world has actually grown less grain than ithas consumed，says Brown World stOCks of grain--thatis，the food 11eld in reserve for ti‘mes of emergency——are nOW SLffcient for just over 50 days．According toexPerts，we are in " thepost—f00d—surplUS era"
　　The food crisis，Brown warns，is only iustbeginnmg．What worries hlnl as much as the newC01TIPetitlon between food and fuel is that the boomingC11lnese and Indlan poPulations--the two lagestnations in the world，xArIth nearly 40 per cent 0f theworld’s population between them--are goving uP theitraditional vegetable—tich dlets for typical"American"diets teat contain more meat and dairy products Mealdemand in China ha。gone“P by 300 per cent in30 years，and in India，m11k and egg Products areincreasingly pOPuIar.
　　In itsele this is no problelTt，say Brown and others，excePt that it means an increased demand f。r water t。grOW more food．It takes seven kiIograms of grain toproduce one kil。gram of beeef and increased dernandWill require huge alIlOUnts of grail]一growlng land．MUCofthis，of course，WI’11haveto bewatered“Water tableare now falling in countries that contain over haIf theworld's people"Brown PoInts out．“While numerousariaIysts and P1icy—iliakers are concerned about afuture 0f water shortages，few have really understoodthat a future of water shortages means a future of food’shortages" New figures from the World Bank，he says，showthat 15 per cent of the world’s present food SUpplies，011 which 160 mllIion PeoPle depend，are belnggrown Wlth water drawn from r。pidly decreasl’ngUllderground sources or fron]rivers tha are dryingup Water scientists around the world。gree cha0 withthe earth’s wate land and humanresources，it WOUld be POSSIble to produce enough f。od for the future．"But it is probable that today’s foodprodUCtion and environmental trendsWill 1ead to crisesinmany parts Ofthe WOrld，"adds Davld M0lden，atop official at the International Water Management Institute．
　　Meanwh．1e，climate change is 1eadingtO more intense rains,unPredictablestorms，Ionger-1asting droughts，andinterrupted seasons In Brltal‘n，the severe floods in 1ast summer have resulted in ashortage of vegetables SUCh as potatoes，and cereals such aswheat This came on top of a 4.9 percent rise in food prices in the year to May--well overconsulaaer price inflation--and a 9.6 per cent in creasein vegetable prices，
　　Britain will be fine，but elsewhere climate change is acatastrophe．Madagascar suffered from seven Gvclonesin the first SiX months of 2007.Predictable weather isbecoming a thing of the past How does the global foodsupply system deal with such changing risk?
　　
　　G1obal grain sMpplies have not been
　　as low as they are today for at least
　　a century
　　
　　一场生态和社会因素导致的“完美风暴”似乎正在酝酿之中，它带来的食品短缺和价格上涨将威胁到亿万人的生存。在世界主要粮食生产国缩减供人畜消费的粮食的产量之时，全球人u却以每年8，700万的速度增K；中国和印度这样的发展中国家正在朝肉类为丰的饮食结构转变，这就意味着需要更多的土地；气候变化也开始严重影响粮食生产。《科学》和《自然》等期刊的最新文章指出，三分之一的海洋渔业正濒临崩溃，到2025年三分之二的海洋渔业将崩溃，到2048年所有主要的海洋渔业将不复存在。
　　美国农业部说，“今年全球谷物供给量将降至有记录以来的最低点。除了战争时期以外，一百多年里都没有过比现在更低的时候了。”布朗也指出，在过去的八年中有七年，全球谷物的生产量都低于消费量。世界谷物储备——也就是为紧急困难时期储备的粮食——目前只够支持五十多天。按照～些专家的说法，我们正处在“粮食过剩后时代”。
　　布朗警告说粮食危机才刚刚开始。除了食物和燃料之间新出现的竞争之外，还有一件事情让他同样担忧：中国和印度——这两个拥有世界40％人口的大国——迅速增长的人口正在放弃他们传统的以蔬菜为主的饮食结构，转向包含更多肉奶制品的典型“美国式”饮食结构。中国的肉食需求在过去30年里增长了300％，而在印度，蛋奶制品也越来越受欢迎。
　　布朗和其他专家认为这本身并不是问题，只是这意味着需要更多的水来种植更多的粮食。生产一公斤牛肉要消耗七公斤谷物，需求的不断增长将需要大量用于种植谷物的土地；而这些耕地理所当然地需要水去灌溉。布朗指出，“全球一半以上的人口所在国家的地下水位正在下降。尽管无数分析家和政策制定者们为未来水资源的紧缺担忧，但是只有极少数人真正懂得，未来的水资源紧缺就意味着未来的粮食紧缺。”
　　他说世界银行的最新数据表明，目前世界粮食供应的15％所依靠的是正在急剧减少的地下水源或JE在干涸的河流，而这部分粮食养活着1.6亿人口。吐界各地的水科学家都认为，以目前地球的水资源、十地资源和人力资源，将来有生产足够食物的可能性。“但是，今天的粮食生产方式和环境趋势有可能导致世界上很多区域面临危机。”国际水资源管理研究所的高级官员大卫·摩尔登补充说道。
　　同时，气候变化正带来更多的大雨、无、祛预测的风暴、更长时间的干旱和不规律的季节更替。在英国，去年夏季的洪水已导致英国蔬菜和谷物紧缺，比如土豆和小麦。而就在那之前，粮食价格到当年5月份已经上涨了4.9％ 一远远高于消费品整体价恪的上涨——而蔬菜价格则上涨了9.6％。
　　英国的情况还不算糟糕，但在其他一些地方，气候变化就是一场灾难。马达加斯加去年上半年经历了七次飓风袭击。预测天气的时代已经一去不复返了。世界粮食供应体系应该如何面对这样不断变化的风险呢？
　　The answer is：with ever-greater difficulty．TheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictsthat raindependent agriculture could be cut in half bV 2020 as a result of climate change．"Anythmg even close to a 50 per cent reduction in vields would mean huge problems,"says Iosette Sheeran,new director ofthe World Food Programme．Within a week，Lesotho had declared a food emergency after the worst droughtin 30 years and after greatly reduced harvests in nelghbouring Sourh Africa had pushed prices wellbeyond the reach of most of the population． All this is far too negati‘ve，say other analysts andpoliticians．Early 20007 Brazil's president,Luiz Lula.told The Guardian that there was no need at aU forworld food shortages，or for any destruction of foreststo grow more food．"Brazil has 320 million hectares[3.2 million sq kin] of arable land，only a fiffh of which iScultivated．Of this，less than four per cent is used forethanol production This is not a choice between food and energy"
　　Others say that the food-price rlses nOW beingseen are temporary and will fall back within。year as the market responds．Technologists are lookingto genetically modified crops,or drought-resistantcrops，or trust that biofuel producers will developtechnologies that require less raw material。r use theparts of food that cannot be eaten The answer for nOWis that countries such as Argentina，Poland，Ukraineand Kazakhstan will grow more food for export as theUS reduces its output
　　Back on the Great Plains，meanwhile，ethanol feveris running high In 2006．there were fewer than 100ethanol factories in the whole of the United States，with a combined production capacity of 19 billion litresAt least 50 more new plants are now being built,andat least 300 more are planned．If even half of them arefinished，they will help to rewrite the politics。f globalfood.
　　答案是：困难会越来越大。根据歧府间气候变化小组的预测，由于气候变化，到2020年依靠自然雨水的农业生产将减少一半。“减产即使不到50％也将导致巨大的困难，”眭!=界粮食计划署的新任执行主任约瑟特施林说。(去年)莱索托在经历了30年以来最严重的干旱之后不到一周，便宣布国家进入粮食紧急状态，之前其邻国南非的粮食大幅减产已经将粮食价格抬升到让老百姓难以接受的水平。
　　有些分析家和政客认为这种观点太过消极。去年年初，巴西总统路易斯卢拉告诉《卫报》记者，世界粮食紧缺根本不可能出现，也没有破坏森林获取耕地的必要。他说，“巴西有3.2亿公顷(320万平方公里)的可耕地，其中只有五分之一用来牛产粮食，而这其中用来生产乙醇的土地还占不到4％……粮食和燃料完全可以兼得。”
　　还有人认为，目前的粮食涨价只是暂时现象，通过市场调整，一年之内价格就会跌回来。技术々家们则或者把希望放在转基因作物或耐旱作物的开发上，或者相信生物燃料生产厂家会开发出少用原料或利用粮食中不能食用的部分来牛产的技术。而目前权宜的办法只能靠阿根廷、波兰、乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦这样的国家多生产粮食以供出口，从而弥补美国粮食出口的缩减。
　　回到美国的大平原上，乙醇热正方兴未艾，发展得热火朝天。2006年，全美国只有不到100家乙醇工厂，生产能力加起来只有190亿升。现在至少有50座新厂正在建设，还有300座正在规划。即使只有一半得以建成，它们也将改写全球的粮食格局。Moe abort Biofuels...
　　
　　
　　 Producing Ethamol from Corm and Other
　　Crops IsNot Worth the Energy
　　用玉米和其他作物生产乙醇是能源的浪费
　　
　　Tuming pIants such as com，soybeans and sunflowersinfo fuel uses much more energy than fhe resultingefhanol or biOdiesel generates，according to a newComell UniVersity and UnIVersity of California—BerkeleysfudV"There is iusf no energy benefif fo using planfbiomassfor jlqujd fueI，”says David PimenleI，p rofesspr ofecology and ag riculture at Cornell"These sfrafegies a renot sustainable"PimenfeI and Tad WPatzek，D rOfess0 r 0f civil 0ndenvirOnmental engineering af Berkelev,cOnducfed adelailed analysis Of fhe energy input-yield ratios Ofproducing ethanOI from corn，switch g rass and wOOdblOmass as well as for producing biOdieseI fromsoybean and sunflower planfsIn terms Of energy outpuf compa red with energy inpuffor ethanOl prOducfiOn，the ST。udy fOund fhaf：
　　 comrequi res 29 percenl more fassil energy fhan fhefueI D rOduced：
　　swjfch g rass requires 45 perce nf mO re fOSSil energyfhan fhe fueI p roduced：and
　　 wood biomass requirees 57 percenl mOre fOSSiI energythan the fueI prOduced.
　　
　　The Future of Biofueels IS Not In Corn
　　 生物燃料的未来不是玉米
　　The tuture Of b1ofUeIs 1s n01 ln corn，says a new report releasedfoday by FOOd＆Water Warch，fhe Netwo rk for New EnergyChoices，and the Vermont Law SchooI Insfufe for Energy and fhe EnvirOnme n1丁he com efhonOI ref nery industry.willnot signmcanfly 0ffset U.S.fOSSil fueI consumption withhoU1 　　unacceptable environmenlaI and econOmic cOnseauences"Rising oiI p rices，energy securify，and gIobal wa rming concemshave 1ed to fodays’ao yellow’hype over com ethanol"expIafned Scoff"CUflen，5enio r Policy AdvisOr for fhe Nek,vork for New Ene『ay Choices“Bul aIl biOfUels are nof equal Expansion of fhe com efhanai lndusfrv w…1ead fo more wafer and airpollufiOn and soll erOsion Of America's farm belt，whiIe failinq tosigncantly offset fossil fuel use Or cOmbaf gIObal warming"The reporf，"The Rush to Ethanol：Not all BioFuels are Equal".isa comDrehenslVe reView Of the IiterafU re On fhe envirOnmenfaland econOmic implicalions DT pinning our hopes on comefhanol to reduce dependency On fossll fueIs Report findingsinclLde fhe f 0llO Wing：
　　N01 all biofueIs a re eauaI Com——now used to produce95 Derce nf of U.S. ethan01-is the leasf susfainable biOfueIfeeds—tock of all raw maferials cOmmOnIv used
　　 The capOCIT Of corm efhanol foo offset U.S.fOSSil ruel useis eXtremeIy Iimiled Dedlcating fhe entirer U.S.com crop fOefhanOl prOductlion would Only offset5 perce nf Of gasOlinedemand Conversely,modest increases in aulO fueI efficiencvsfandards of even 0ne mile per qallon fOr all Cars and 1iqhftrcls，such as fhose passed by fhe senate last monfh couId cufpelroleum cOnsumptiOn by more fhan all altenative fuels andreDlaceme nf fueIs combined
　　com efhanol ls the wrong biofuel for combating gIobalwarming The mos}faV0rable esfimafes show that corn efhanolcould reduce g reenhouse gos emissions by 18 pe rcenf fo 28pe rcent，wh_le—cellu—losic ethanol is estimated fo offer a reduc"onof 87 percent compared to gas01ine
　　Efhonol is not fhe solufion to revitalizing ruraI America Whilehigher commodity prices and cooperafivefy owned efhanoIreflneries couId be a boon to independe nf farmers．unregulatedethanol industry growth will furher—conce—ntrate agribusiness，threafeninq fhe Iivelihood of rUral communitiesThe Coming 迫在眉睫的糖食危机
　　John Vidaf
　　
　　美国中部的大平部的大平原土寺肥沃、物产丰饶、享有“面包蓝”的美誉
　　在环保意识不断提高的今天，由粮食作特加工而成的物生物燃料日益受到重视，一场变革也正在大平原上蓬勃兴起。大量的农产品而送到燃料加工厂加工成汽车燃料，供水人和动物食用的农产品因而出现紧缺，价格也急剧上涨。这场变革有哪些原因，规模如何，会带来什么样的影响呢？它是否真的会导致世界粮良危机呢？
　　
　　T
　　 　he mile uponm of tall maize waving to thehorizon around the small Nebraskan townof Carleton 100ks perfect to farmers SUChas Mark JageIs．He alld his father work 10square kilometres。f 1and．The price of malze--what the Americans call"corn"一has never been higher and thefuture has seldom seemed brighter．Carlet。n is boomingWI’th$200 milllon of Califorman 1Ttoney put up for a nev—biof—uel factory．After severaI s10W years,七here is mewfuU—time，weIl—Paid work for 50 people． There is a Prob Jem，though．The same fields thatsurroundthe Jagels’house on—the Great Plains arebFinging new money to America's farmlands，butthey are alSO helping to pUSh uP the Price of bread inManchesteL tortjllas in Mexlco Citv and beer in MadridAs a direct result of what is happenm‘g in places like Nebraska，Kansas，Indlana and OKLahoma，food aid forthe Poorest people in SOUthern Africa，pork in Chinaand beefin B ritain are a11 more expensive． Challenged by Presldent George W.BUSh toprodUCO 132 bjJljion litres of non—fossil transport fuel。bv 201 7 t0 reduce US dedendencv on imDorted 0i1．thebreadbasket of the world is graduaIly belng turnedinto an enormous fuel tank．Come harvest time inSeptembe almost a11 the maize croP Wi11 end uP atthe new factory at Carleton，where it Wli11 be fermentedinto ethanoL a cleaL co1ourless alcoho1 consumed notby people，butby cars．
　　“Agrofuels”have arrived In Nebraska alone，anextra 4，000 sq km of maize were planted last year whichWill produce nearly four billion 1itres of ethanol Acrossthe US，20 Per ceilt of the maize crop Wellt to ethan01 in2[)(]6 HOW much is that?Two per cent of US anton]obileuse．A1l this i。part of a global green trend however．Asthe US，Europe，China Japan and other COUrttrl’es arebeginnlng to use 10 per cent or more alternativeautomobile fuels，farmers everywhere are hurrying togrow maize，SUgar cane，o．1 palms and oilseed rape allof which can be turmd mfo e出anol or 0fher biofuelsBut that means getting OUt of 0ther crops
　　
　　在
　　
　　马克·杰格尔这样的农民看来，内布拉斯加州的小镇卡尔顿周围绵延数里直通天际的玉米地令人心旷神怡。他和他父亲耕种着这里10平方公里的土地。玉米的价格一路上涨，前景一片光明。有加利福利亚人出资2亿美元在卡尔顿投资兴建了一座生物燃料工厂，这座小镇正因此而迅速发展。经过几年的缓慢发展之后，这里已经有了50份全职、高薪水的新工作。
　　但是有一个问题。大平原上杰格尔家附近的这片田野在为美国农场创造新利润的同时，也推动了世界各地的粮食价格，如曼彻斯特的面包、墨西哥城的玉米粉圆饼还有马德里的啤酒。内布拉斯加州、堪萨斯州、印地安那州和俄克拉何马州所发生的一切的直接后果是，对南非贫民的粮食援助、中国的猪肉和英国的牛肉都变得更加昂贵。
　　美国总统乔治·布什提出到2017年要将美国非化石交通燃料的产量提高到l，320亿升，从而减小美国对进口石油的依赖。这样～来，有着“世界面包篮”美誉的火平原就将渐渐变成巨大的燃料箱。到了9月份庄稼成熟的季节，几乎所有收割卜来的玉米都会被送到卡尔顿的新工厂。在那里，它们将被发酵成乙醇——一种清洁的、无色的酒精，消费者不是人，而是汽车。
　　“农产燃料”的时代已经到来。仅在内布拉斯加州，去年就增种了4，000平方公里的玉米，可以生产近40亿升的乙醇。在整个美国，2006年全部玉米产量的20％都被加工成了乙醇。这到底有多少呢？占了美国全年车用燃料的2％。然而，所有这些只是世界环保潮流的一部分。由于美国、欧洲、中国、日本以及其他一些国家打算将10％甚至更多的汽车燃料换成替代品，世界各地的农民正在加紧种植玉米、甘蔗、油椰子和油菜等作物，这些作物都能被加工成乙醇或其他生物燃料。但这样做就意味着逐渐放弃利植其他作物。
　　The changes are Immense．The Indlan government s。ys it wants to plan 140.000 sq km of biofuel crops，Brazil as much as 1.2 million sq km. SOUthern Africais sald to be the future Middle East of biofuels，Wlth asmuch as4ml。11ion sq km oflandteadyt。beusedforcroPs SUCh as Jatropha Curcas (phySic nut)，a tough P1anthat can be gtown on Poor land Indonesl’a has said itintends to produce more than Malaysl‘a by lncreassingit。Palm oil Production from 64.000 sq km now to260，000 sq km in 2025．
　　While this may be slightly better for CO,rb01"lenll’SSl’OnS and energy securlty it is proving terrible forfood prices and anyone who stallds in the way of a faslgrowlng new industry.A year or two ago，alnl08t a11the 1and in the US where maize is now belng gtown toinake ethanol was farlned for hulnan or alll’mal food：alld since America is the world's largest exporter ofmaize，the price has dOUbled in 10 months，and that ofwheat has risen by abont 50 per cent． 　　"In 1ast June，wheat prices across the US alldEuroPe hit their highest 1evels in more than a decade"says Mark HⅢfr01TI the consulting firrn Deloicfe．“These Pri‘ceincreases are 1ikely to trigger innation infood prices，as processors are forced to Pay increasedCOSts for basl’c ingredlents SUCh as corn and wheat．"
　　British flour 1TIl’11ers，for example，need 5.5 milliontonnes of wheat a year to produce the 12 millon loavesSOld each day in the UK．MOSt of this wheat is grosvnin Britain，and in the Past year milling—wheat Pricesmoved from around￡100 to￡200 a tonne．The price ofa stalldard HOViS loaf rose from fo 93 to￡O.99 in lastFebruary and more increases Wi11 be conllng，the firmsays，In France，consumers have a1SO been warned t11atthel。baguettes Wi11 be more expensiveCheap food is a thing of the Past，says Hill．Worldcommodity prices of sngar m11k and Cocoa have allrecently gone up．"Meat，too，w11l COSt more，because chicken and Pigs are fed 1argely on grain"says HiII．"And whik anyone growm’g grai‘ns Will be better offdairy alld ljvestock producers nlay well struggle in thls envlronment．"
　　The surge in demand for agrofuels SUCh as ethan01is hitting the poor alld the environment hardest ofa11．The UN World Food Programme，which feeds abOUt 90 mllli01-1 peopk 1TIOStIy Wlth US maize，saysthat 850 miUiOil people around the world are alreadyundernourlshed．There W111 SOOll be more because theprice of food aid has increased by 20 Per cellt in just a year．Meanwhile，Indian food Prices have risen by11 per cent in a year．SOUth AfrI’Ca has seen fo。d—prl。cerises Of nearly 17 per cent．
　　In the US，which has nearly 40 mlUion Poor People，the Department of Agrlculture recen1y sal’d it expectsto see a 10 per cent rise in the Price of chicken.Thepri’ces of bread，beee eggs and milk rose by 7.5 Per Celltin last JulM the highest nlonthly rise for 25 years
　　“The COrnpebfion for gram between the world’s 800m11lion PAotorists，who wan to rllaIntain thelrmobility and its two billiOil poorest peoPle，whoare SirePly to ying to survive,is becomling an epicissue,"says Lester Browr,presl‘dellt of Washington'sWorldwatch Institute think tank and author of the bookWho Will Feed Chinan?
　　Things are not gomg t。get any bette says BrownThe UN’s World F00d 0rgam’zation Predicts that thedemand for biofLiels will grow by 170 per cent in thenext thFee years．A seParate report fr01TI the OECD,the club of the world’s 30 tichest coun[rl’es，suggestedfood—prl’ce rises of between 20 per cent and 50 per cen[over fhe nest decade
　　变化是巨大的。印度政府声称将种植14万平方公里的生物燃料作物，巴西政府则说要种植120万平方公里。据说南部非洲将来会成为生物燃料的“中东地区一，因为它准备将多达400万平方公里的土地用于种植麻疯树，一种可以在贫瘠的土二壤里生长的坚韧植物。印度尼西亚已经表示要在2025年以前把油椰子的种植而积从现在的6.4万平方公里扩大到26万平方公里，从而超过马来西亚的生物燃料产量。
　　这些变化或许对二氧化碳的排放和能源安全略微有些好处，但对于粮食价格和任何阻碍这个新兴产业的人来说却糟糕透顶。在美国，现在为生产乙醇而种植玉米的土地在一两年以前几乎全部是用来生产供人或动物消费的粮食的。而且，因为美国是世界最大的玉米出口国，世界玉米价格在10个月内翻了一倍，小麦价格也上涨了约50％。
　　“去年6月，美国和欧洲各国的小麦价格达到了十 多年来的最高点，”德勤咨询公司的马克西尔说，“这些价格卜涨有可能引发食品价格的飞涨，因为粮食加工企业不得不为玉米、小麦这样的基本原料付出更高的成本。一
　　举个例子，英国的而粉加工厂每年需要550万吨小麦来生产在英国每天出售的l，200万个面包。其中大部分的小麦产自英国。在过去一年的时间里，制粉用的小麦价格从每吨大约100英镑涨到了每吨200英镑。去年2月，一块标准大小的霍维斯面包的价格从0．93英镑涨到了0.99英镑，而且据德勤公司说，价格还会继续上涨。在法国，消费者们也收到了他们的棍子面包价格将要上涨的警告。
　　西尔说廉价食品将一去不复返了。糖、牛奶和可可粉的全球价格最近都上涨了。“肉类的价格也会上涨，因为鸡和猪都主要靠谷物喂养，”西尔说，“虽然种植谷物的人将获得更多收入，但乳制品生产和家畜饲养行业的人们却将度日艰难。”
　　因乙醇等农产燃料需求增加而遭受打击最大的是穷人和环境。主要靠美国玉米养活全球9，000万贫困人口的联合国世界粮食计划署称，目前全球已有8．5亿人营养不良。这个数字很快还会增加，因为粮食援助的成本在短短一年的时间里就上涨了20％。与此同时，印度的食品价格一年内上涨了11％，南非食品价格上涨了近17％。
　　美国有着4，000万穷人，然而美国农业部最近表示鸡肉价格将上调10％。面包、牛肉、鸡蛋和牛奶的价格在去年7月份上涨了7.5％，是25年来一个月之内上涨最多的一次。
　　“一方面全球8亿机动车驾驶者希望能继续驾驶，另一方面20亿穷人想要活命，这两者之间对谷物的竞争正成为重要的时代课题，”华盛顿世界观察研究所所长、《谁来养活中国？》一书的作者莱斯特·布朗说。
　　布朗认为局势不会有任何好转。联合国世界粮食组织预测，生物燃料的需求量在今后三年将增加170％。而另一份来自经济合作与发展组织——世界30个最富国家的俱乐部——的报告则预示，今后lO年食品价格将有20％到50％的涨幅。
　　A "Perfect storlli" of ecoIOgical and Soclal factorsaPPears t。be gatherlng force，threatenlng huge Rumbersof People wlth f00d shortages and Price rises．Even asthe world’s big farmers are pulling out Of producingfood f0。peoPle and anl’mals，the g10bal poPulation isrising by 87 million peoPle a year; devel。Pi“g countriesSUCh as China and India are switching to meat—baseddiets that need more Iandj alld climate change is startingto hit f。od Producers hard Recent reports in the journal。SCleHce and Nature SUggest that a third of ocean fisherlesare in COllapse；DeVO thirds will be in COll。Pse by 2025;alld all m ajor ocean fisherles may be gone by 2048．
　　“GIobaI grain SUPplles Will drop to thelf lowestlevels on record“llS year 0utside of wartime，they havenot been this 10w in a celrturv.perhaPs 1onger"says theUS Department of Agrlculture．In seven of the past eightyears，the world has actually grown less grain than ithas consumed，says Brown World stOCks of grain--thatis，the food 11eld in reserve for ti‘mes of emergency——are nOW SLffcient for just over 50 days．According toexPerts，we are in " thepost—f00d—surplUS era"
　　The food crisis，Brown warns，is only iustbeginnmg．What worries hlnl as much as the newC01TIPetitlon between food and fuel is that the boomingC11lnese and Indlan poPulations--the two lagestnations in the world，xArIth nearly 40 per cent 0f theworld’s population between them--are goving uP theitraditional vegetable—tich dlets for typical"American"diets teat contain more meat and dairy products Mealdemand in China ha。gone“P by 300 per cent in30 years，and in India，m11k and egg Products areincreasingly pOPuIar.
　　In itsele this is no problelTt，say Brown and others，excePt that it means an increased demand f。r water t。grOW more food．It takes seven kiIograms of grain toproduce one kil。gram of beeef and increased dernandWill require huge alIlOUnts of grail]一growlng land．MUCofthis，of course，WI’11haveto bewatered“Water tableare now falling in countries that contain over haIf theworld's people"Brown PoInts out．“While numerous ariaIysts and P1icy—iliakers are concerned about afuture 0f water shortages，few have really understoodthat a future of water shortages means a future of food’shortages" New figures from the World Bank，he says，showthat 15 per cent of the world’s present food SUpplies，011 which 160 mllIion PeoPle depend，are belnggrown Wlth water drawn from r。pidly decreasl’ngUllderground sources or fron]rivers tha are dryingup Water scientists around the world。gree cha0 withthe earth’s wate land and humanresources，it WOUld be POSSIble to produce enough f。od for the future．"But it is probable that today’s foodprodUCtion and environmental trendsWill 1ead to crisesinmany parts Ofthe WOrld，"adds Davld M0lden，atop official at the International Water Management Institute．
　　Meanwh．1e，climate change is 1eadingtO more intense rains,unPredictablestorms，Ionger-1asting droughts，andinterrupted seasons In Brltal‘n，the severefloods in 1ast summer have resulted in ashortage of vegetables SUCh as potatoes，and cereals such aswheat This came on top of a 4.9 percent rise in food prices in the year to May--well overconsulaaer price inflation--and a 9.6 per cent in creasein vegetable prices，
　　Britain will be fine，but elsewhere climate change is acatastrophe．Madagascar suffered from seven Gvclonesin the first SiX months of 2007.Predictable weather isbecoming a thing of the past How does the global foodsupply system deal with such changing risk?
　　
　　G1obal grain sMpplies have not been
　　as low as they are today for at least
　　a century
　　
　　一场生态和社会因素导致的“完美风暴”似乎正在酝酿之中，它带来的食品短缺和价格上涨将威胁到亿万人的生存。在世界主要粮食生产国缩减供人畜消费的粮食的产量之时，全球人u却以每年8，700万的速度增K；中国和印度这样的发展中国家正在朝肉类为丰的饮食结构转变，这就意味着需要更多的土地；气候变化也开始严重影响粮食生产。《科学》和《自然》等期刊的最新文章指出，三分之一的海洋渔业正濒临崩溃，到2025年三分之二的海洋渔业将崩溃，到2048年所有主要的海洋渔业将不复存在。
　　美国农业部说，“今年全球谷物供给量将降至有记录以来的最低点。除了战争时期以外，一百多年里都没有过比现在更低的时候了。”布朗也指出，在过去的八年中有七年，全球谷物的生产量都低于消费量。世界谷物储备——也就是为紧急困难时期储备的粮食——目前只够支持五十多天。按照～些专家的说法，我们正处在“粮食过剩后时代”。
　　布朗警告说粮食危机才刚刚开始。除了食物和燃料之间新出现的竞争之外，还有一件事情让他同样担忧：中国和印度——这两个拥有世界40％人口的大国——迅速增长的人口正在放弃他们传统的以蔬菜为主的饮食结构，转向包含更多肉奶制品的典型“美国式”饮食结构。中国的肉食需求在过去30年里增长了300％，而在印度，蛋奶制品也越来越受欢迎。
　　布朗和其他专家认为这本身并不是问题，只是这意味着需要更多的水来种植更多的粮食。生产一公斤牛肉要消耗七公斤谷物，需求的不断增长将需要大量用于种植谷物的土地；而这些耕地理所当然地需要水去灌溉。布朗指出，“全球一半以上的人口所在国家的地下水位正在下降。尽管无数分析家和政策制定者们为未来水资源的紧缺担忧，但是只有极少数人真正懂得，未来的水资源紧缺就意味着未来的粮食紧缺。”
　　他说世界银行的最新数据表明，目前世界粮食供应的15％所依靠的是正在急剧减少的地下水源或JE在干涸的河流，而这部分粮食养活着1.6亿人口。吐界各地的水科学家都认为，以目前地球的水资源、十地资源和人力资源，将来有生产足够食物的可能性。“但是，今天的粮食生产方式和环境趋势有可能导致世界上很多区域面临危机。”国际水资源管理研究所的高级官员大卫·摩尔登补充说道。
　　同时，气候变化正带来更多的大雨、无、祛预测的风暴、更长时间的干旱和不规律的季节更替。在英国，去年夏季的洪水已导致英国蔬菜和谷物紧缺，比如土豆和小麦。而就在那之前，粮食价格到当年5月份已经上涨了4.9％ 一远远高于消费品整体价恪的上涨——而蔬菜价格则上涨了9.6％。
　　英国的情况还不算糟糕，但在其他一些地方，气候变化就是一场灾难。马达加斯加去年上半年经历了七次飓风袭击。预测天气的时代已经一去不复返了。世界粮食供应体系应该如何面对这样不断变化的风险呢？
　　The answer is：with ever-greater difficulty．TheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictsthat raindependent agriculture could be cut in half bV 2020 as a result of climate change．"Anythmg even close to a 50 per cent reduction in vields would mean huge problems,"says Iosette Sheeran,new director ofthe World Food Programme．Within a week，Lesotho had declared a food emergency after the worst droughtin 30 years and after greatly reduced harvests in nelghbouring Sourh Africa had pushed prices wellbeyond the reach of most of the population． All this is far too negati‘ve，say other analysts andpoliticians．Early 20007 Brazil's president,Luiz Lula.told The Guardian that there was no need at aU forworld food shortages，or for any destruction of foreststo grow more food．"Brazil has 320 million hectares[3.2 million sq kin] of arable land，only a fiffh of which iScultivated．Of this，less than four per cent is used forethanol production This is not a choice between food and energy"
　　Others say that the food-price rlses nOW beingseen are temporary and will fall back within。yearas the market responds．Technologists are lookingto genetically modified crops,or drought-resistantcrops，or trust that biofuel producers will developtechnologies that require less raw material。r use theparts of food that cannot be eaten The answer for nOWis that countries such as Argentina，Poland，Ukraineand Kazakhstan will grow more food for export as theUS reduces its output
　　Back on the Great Plains，meanwhile，ethanol feveris running high In 2006．there were fewer than 100ethanol factories in the whole of the United States，with a combined production capacity of 19 billion litresAt least 50 more new plants are now being built,andat least 300 more are planned．If even half of them arefinished，they will help to rewrite the politics。f globalfood.
　　答案是：困难会越来越大。根据歧府间气候变化小组的预测，由于气候变化，到2020年依靠自然雨水的农业生产将减少一半。“减产即使不到50％也将导致巨大的困难，”眭!=界粮食计划署的新任执行主任约瑟特施林说。(去年)莱索托在经历了30年以来最严重的干旱之后不到一周，便宣布国家进入粮食紧急状态，之前其邻国南非的粮食大幅减产已经将粮食价格抬升到让老百姓难以接受的水平。
　　有些分析家和政客认为这种观点太过消极。去年年初，巴西总统路易斯卢拉告诉《卫报》记者，世界粮食紧缺根本不可能出现，也没有破坏森林获取耕地的必要。他说，“巴西有3.2亿公顷(320万平方公里)的可耕地，其中只有五分之一用来牛产粮食，而这其中用来生产乙醇的土地还占不到4％……粮食和燃料完全可以兼得。”
　　还有人认为，目前的粮食涨价只是暂时现象，通过市场调整，一年之内价格就会跌回来。技术々家们则或者把希望放在转基因作物或耐旱作物的开发上，或者相信生物燃料生产厂家会开发出少用原料或利用粮食中不能食用的部分来牛产的技术。而目前权宜的办法只能靠阿根廷、波兰、乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦这样的国家多生产粮食以供出口，从而弥补美国粮食出口的缩减。
　　回到美国的大平原上，乙醇热正方兴未艾，发展得热火朝天。2006年，全美国只有不到100家乙醇工厂，生产能力加起来只有190亿升。现在至少有50座新厂正在建设，还有300座正在规划。即使只有一半得以建成，它们也将改写全球的粮食格局。Moe abort Biofuels...
　　
　　
　　 Producing Ethamol from Corm and Other
　　Crops IsNot Worth the Energy
　　用玉米和其他作物生产乙醇是能源的浪费
　　
　　Tuming pIants such as com，soybeans and sunflowersinfo fuel uses much more energy than fhe resultingefhanol or biOdiesel generates，according to a newComell UniVersity and UnIVersity of California—BerkeleysfudV"There is iusf no energy benefif fo using planfbiomassfor jlqujd fueI，”says David PimenleI，p rofesspr ofecology and ag riculture at Cornell"These sfrafegies a renot sustainable"PimenfeI and Tad WPatzek，D rOfess0 r 0f civil 0nd envirOnmental engineering af Berkelev,cOnducfed adelailed analysis Of fhe energy input-yield ratios Ofproducing ethanOI from corn，switch g rass and wOOdblOmass as well as for producing biOdieseI fromsoybean and sunflower planfsIn terms Of energy outpuf compa red with energy inpuffor ethanOl prOducfiOn，the ST。udy fOund fhaf：
　　 comrequi res 29 percenl more fassil energy fhan fhefueI D rOduced：
　　swjfch g rass requires 45 perce nf mO re fOSSil energyfhan fhe fueI p roduced：and
　　 wood biomass requirees 57 percenl mOre fOSSiI energythan the fueI prOduced.
　　
　　The Future of Biofueels IS Not In Corn
　　 生物燃料的未来不是玉米
　　The tuture Of b1ofUeIs 1s n01 ln corn，says a new report releasedfoday by FOOd＆Water Warch，fhe Netwo rk for New EnergyChoices，and the Vermont Law SchooI Insfufe for Energy and fhe EnvirOnme n1丁he com efhonOI ref nery industry.willnot signmcanfly 0ffset U.S.fOSSil fueI consumption withhoU1
　　unacceptable environmenlaI and econOmic cOnseauences"Rising oiI p rices，energy securify，and gIobal wa rming concemshave 1ed to fodays’ao yellow’hype over com ethanol"expIafned Scoff"CUflen，5enio r Policy AdvisOr for fhe Nek,vork for New Eneway Choices“Bul aIl biOfUels are nof equal Expansion of fhe com efhanai lndusfrv wiead fo more wafer and airpollufiOn and soll erOsion Of America's farm belt，whiIe failinq tosigncantly offset fossil fuel use Or cOmbaf gIObal warming"The reporf，"The Rush to Ethanol：Not all BioFuels are Equal".isa comDrehenslVe reView Of the IiterafU re On fhe envirOnmenfaland econOmic implicalions DT pinning our hopes on comefhanol to reduce dependency On fossll fueIs Report findingsinclLde fhe foll Wing：
　　N01 all biofueIs a re eauaI Com——now used to produce95 Derce nf of U.S. ethan01-is the leasf susfainable biOfueIfeeds—tock of all raw maferials cOmmOnIv used
　　 The capOCIT Of corm efhanol foo offset U.S.fOSSil ruel useis eXtremeIy Iimiled Dedlcating fhe entirer U.S.com crop fOefhanOl prOductlion would Only offset5 perce nf Of gasOlinedemand Conversely,modest increases in aulO fueI efficiencvsfandards of even 0ne mile per qallon fOr all Cars and 1iqhftrcls，such as fhose passed by fhe senate last monfh couId cufpelroleum cOnsumptiOn by more fhan all altenative fuels andreDlaceme nf fueis combined
　　com efhanol is the wrong biofuel for combating gIobalwarming The mos}faV0rable esfimafes show that corn efhanolcould reduce g reenhouse gos emissions by 18 pe rcenf fo 28pe rcent，wh_le—cellu—losic ethanol is estimated fo offer a reduc"onof 87 percent compared to gas01ine
　　Efhonol is not fhe solufion to revitalizing ruraI America Whilehigher commodity prices and cooperafivefy owned efhanoIreflneries couId be a boon to independe nf farmers．unregulatedethanol industry growth will furher—conce—ntrate agribusiness，threafeninq fhe Iivelihood of rUral communities