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本文应用系统分析方法总结有关马尾松毛虫的科研成果和实际经验,建立了反映马尾松毛虫、松林、自然条件与环境状况、人类社会行为之间本质关系的结构模型。通过对影响马尾松毛虫种群动态因子的分析、提炼及数量化表示,建立了马尾松毛虫时间域及空间域种群动态模型。两者结合可以对松毛虫种群动态进行系统模拟,预测松毛虫的发生量、发生面积及分布状况。以安徽省潜山县黄铺试验区调查数据验证此模型,与松毛虫实际发生规律吻合。
In this paper, we summarize the research results and practical experiences of Dendrolimus punctatus by means of systematic analysis and establish a structural model that reflects the essential relationship between the caterpillar, pine forests, natural conditions and environmental conditions, and human social behavior. By analyzing, refining and quantifying the dynamic factors affecting the population dynamics of Dendrolimus punctatus, the dynamic model of the population dynamics of Dendrolimus punctatus in time and space was established. The combination of both can systematically simulate the population dynamics of the pine caterpillars and predict the occurrence, occurrence area and distribution of the pine caterpillars. The model was validated by the survey data of Huangpu Experimental Zone in Qianshan County, Anhui Province, which was consistent with the actual occurrence of pine caterpillars.