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为定量分析SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌流域径流模拟的适用性,以叶尔羌河卡群水文站以上集水区域为研究流域,基于卡群水文站2000-2012年水文数据,运用SWAT模型模拟了研究流域的径流量,并设定2种气候变化情景模式,定量分析不同气候变化情景模式对叶尔羌流域径流量的影响。研究结果表明:SWAT模型在叶尔羌河流域具有较好的适用性,模拟的径流深相对误差小于8%,确定性系数均达到0.75以上;在降水不变化的前提下,气温升高2℃,流域径流量增加6.28%;在气温不变前提下,降水量增加5%,流域径流量增加9.50%。研究成果对于新疆叶尔羌河流域水文模拟及预测提供参考价值。
In order to quantitatively analyze the applicability of the SWAT model in runoff simulation in the Yarkant River Basin in Xinjiang, a catchment area above the Yarkand River Qa’ikan hydrological station was selected as a research basin. Based on the hydrological data of the Qunqun Hydrological Station from 2000 to 2012, And set up two kinds of climate change scenarios to quantitatively analyze the impact of different climate change scenarios on runoff in Yarkand Basin. The results show that the SWAT model has good applicability in the Yarkand River Basin. The simulated runoff depth relative error is less than 8%, and the certainty coefficient is above 0.75. Under the premise of no precipitation change, the temperature rises by 2 ℃, The flow increased by 6.28%. Under the condition of constant temperature, the precipitation increased by 5% and the runoff of the basin increased by 9.50%. The research results provide reference value for the hydrological simulation and prediction of Yarkant River Basin in Xinjiang.