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基于区域气候模式PRECIS的输出结果,计算了SRES A2情景下黄淮海平原帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)的时空变化趋势及不同年代干旱频率和干旱历时的变化。结果表明:气候变化A2情景下,黄淮海平原未来百年将呈现先变干后变湿的趋势,2011~2040年将可能成为黄淮海平原最干旱的时段,极端干旱的干旱频率及干旱历时将达最大,随后逐渐变湿,2071~2100年将呈现明显的湿润化趋势;未来降水的增加将导致黄淮海平原湿润化,但气温的升高将会削弱湿润化程度。
Based on the output of the regional climate model PRECIS, the spatio-temporal variations of the Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in the SRES A2 scenario and the changes of drought frequency and drought duration in different years were calculated. The results show that under the climate change A2 scenario, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain tends to become wet first after drying in the next 100 years, and may become the driest period in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2011 to 2040. The drought frequency and drought duration of extreme drought will reach Maximum, and then gradually become wet, showing a clear trend of wetting from 2071 to 2100; the increase of precipitation in the future will lead to the humidification of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, but the increase of temperature will weaken the degree of wetting.