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文章基于汇率传递的视角,详细考察了中国贸易价格的汇率传递问题,通过构建贸易价格指数和汇率指数,分析了中国总体、分类商品、分贸易伙伴的汇率传递弹性及其对称性。从总体上看,中国贸易价格的汇率传递弹性具有不完全传递的特征,出口和进口的价格汇率传递弹性仅约为20%,且两者变化均与人民币汇率变动密切相关。从分类商品上看,各类商品的汇率传递弹性体现出明显的异质性,其中,矿产品和化工产品的出口汇率传递弹性较大,动植物和金属产品的进口汇率传递弹性较高。人民币汇率变动方向和幅度对汇率传递的影响基本存在对称性,人民币汇率制度改革也并未明显影响汇率传递的程度。从分国别上看,以美国和韩国为例,中国与前者贸易价格的汇率传递弹性明显较大,是与后者的2.5~3倍左右。
Based on the perspective of exchange rate transfer, this paper examines the issue of the exchange rate transfer of China’s trade prices in detail. By constructing the trade price index and the exchange rate index, this paper analyzes the exchange rate elasticity and its symmetry of China’s overall, classified commodities and trading partners. Generally speaking, the exchange rate elasticity of China’s trade price has the characteristics of incomplete transfer. The elasticity of price transfer between export and import is only about 20%, and the changes of both are closely related to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. From the classification of goods point of view, all kinds of commodity exchange rate flexibility showed obvious heterogeneity, of which, mineral products and chemical products export exchange rate transmission flexibility, animal and plant and metal products higher import exchange rate transmission flexibility. The impact of the direction and magnitude of RMB exchange rate changes on the exchange rate basically exists symmetry, and the reform of the RMB exchange rate system has not obviously affected the degree of exchange rate transfer. From the perspective of sub-countries, taking the United States and South Korea as examples, the exchange rate flexibility of the trade prices between China and the former is obviously larger, about 2.5 to 3 times that of the latter.