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本文在已有研究文献的基础上,对预期损失模型的实施障碍以及我国拨备的具体实践进行了回顾,提出了通过评估行业风险对行业贷款计提基于预期损失的拨备思路,并通过实证模型证明,目前商业银行的贷款拨备呈现服从监管标准的主要特征,而房地产行业的风险指标可以先期反映行业的部分风险,在此基础上,本文提出了相关结论及政策建议。
Based on the existing research literature, this paper reviews the barriers to the implementation of the expected loss model and the specific practice of China’s provision. It puts forward the idea of setting aside the industry loans based on the expected loss by assessing the industry risks, The model proves that at present, the loan provision of commercial banks presents the main characteristics subject to regulatory standards. And the risk indicators of the real estate industry can reflect some risks of the industry in advance, and on this basis, the paper puts forward the relevant conclusions and policy recommendations.