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针对船舶制造周期的估计和控制问题,将灰色系统中的区间灰数引入到GERT网络的求解过程,采用经过改进后的标准区间灰数对网络流参数进行改进,从而得到项目周期的改进计算,以巴拿马型散货船的制造过程为例对船舶制造的成功概率与完成时间问题进行研究,展示了其在船舶订货周期控制中的实用性和适用性。
Aiming at the problem of ship manufacturing cycle estimation and control, the interval gray numbers in gray system are introduced into the solving process of GERT network, and the improved standard interval gray numbers are used to improve the network flow parameters to obtain the improved calculation of project cycle. Taking the manufacturing process of Panamax bulk carrier as an example, this paper studies the success probability and completion time of shipbuilding, and shows its practicability and applicability in ship ordering cycle control.