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由于受到电力市场环境下多方面不确定性因素的影响,难以准确计算投资输电项目的现金流和内部收益率等关键决策指标,增加了电网投资项目的投资风险和决策难度。基于云理论描述了电网投资项目的现金流的模糊特性,较以往单纯依靠模糊数的方法更加符合决策者的思维判断模式,并充分体现了电网投资建设中不确定因素和模糊集隶属度的随机性。结合实物期权理论,构造了不确定环境下输电项目投资评价的新的方法框架,提出了基于云理论的输电项目实物期权投资决策模型,并以实例证明了该方法的有效性和可行性。
Due to various uncertainties in the electricity market environment, it is difficult to accurately calculate the key decision indicators such as cash flow and internal rate of return of investment and transmission projects, which increases the investment risk and decision-making difficulty of grid investment projects. Based on the cloud theory, the fuzzy characteristics of the cash flow of power grid investment projects are described, which is more in line with the decision-maker’s mode of thinking judgment than the past methods of relying solely on fuzzy numbers, and fully embodies the randomness of uncertainties and fuzzy membership in grid investment Sex. Combined with real option theory, a new method framework of investment evaluation of transmission projects in uncertain environment is constructed. The investment decision model of real option of transmission projects is proposed based on cloud theory. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method are proved by examples.