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文章简介了下汤地区区域地质及地震地质条件,分析了下汤地区岩体渗透性、现代地应力场特征及车村—鲁山断裂现代活动性。从地质条件分析、工程地质地震地质类比、危险度估算及统计检验等诸方面,论证了下汤水库诱发地震的可能性;结合岩石断裂力学研究成果预测了下汤水库诱发地震的可能震级和震中位置。
This paper introduces the regional geology and seismic geological conditions in Xia Tom area, analyzes the permeability of rock mass in Xia Tom area, the characteristics of modern geostress and the modern activities of Checheng - Lushan fault. This paper proves the possibility of induced earthquakes in Xia Tom Reservoir from the aspects of geological conditions analysis, seismic geologic analogy of engineering geology, risk assessment and statistical test, and predicts the possible magnitude and epicenter of the induced earthquakes in XiaTang Reservoir combining with the results of rock fracture mechanics position.