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以单边或双边贸易流量为切入点的方法很难直接解释由区域贸易协定兴起和市场因子频繁波动所引发的世界贸易网络格局的变化。因此,本文尝试以无权网络和加权网络相结合的方法刻画1995—2013年世界贸易网络的演化过程,并运用网络分析方法和QAP方法,解构世界贸易网络的演化及影响因素。主要发现为:世界贸易网络虽日趋紧密但对称性极差,网络中的负向匹配和富人俱乐部现象并未有所改观,且网络中的“轮轴—辐条”模式日益明显。外商直接投资差距、各国之间的地理联系以及经济贸易合作组织和协定的关联可以解释30.3%的世界贸易网络格局。
It is difficult to directly explain the changes in the pattern of the world trade network caused by the rise of RTAs and the frequent fluctuations of market factors, taking the approach of unilateral or bilateral trade flows as a starting point. Therefore, this paper attempts to describe the evolution of the world trade network from 1995 to 2013 by using a combination of no-weight network and weighted network, and use the network analysis method and QAP method to deconstruct the evolution and influencing factors of the world trade network. The main findings are as follows: Although the world trade network is increasingly close but the symmetry is very poor, the negative match in the network and the phenomenon of the rich club have not changed, and the “axle-spoke” mode in the network is increasingly obvious. The foreign direct investment gap, the geographical linkages among countries and the economic and trade cooperation organizations and agreements can explain 30.3% of the world trade network.