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金融危机导致我国外需大幅下降,扩大内需尤其是扩大居民消费需求成为当前政策的首要任务。本文利用中国31个地区2000-2007年的面板数据分析了影响居民消费的决定因素,结果发现居民收入和社会保障水平对消费有显著正影响,收入差距和支出预期对消费有显著负影响,并根据分析结果提出政策关注的优先顺序应为:居民收入、子女预期支出、社会保障、收入差距;在关注刺激消费的短期政策时,应兼顾影响消费的长期政策因素。
Financial crisis led to a sharp decline in China’s foreign demand, expanding domestic demand, especially to expand consumer demand has become the primary task of the current policy. Based on panel data of 31 districts in China from 2000 to 2007, this paper analyzes the determinants of household consumption, and finds that residents’ income and social security have a significant positive impact on consumption. The income gap and expenditure expectation have a significant negative impact on consumption. According to the analysis results, the priority of policy attention should be: income of residents, children’s expected expenditure, social security, income gap; while focusing on stimulating short-term consumption policies, we should consider long-term policy factors that affect consumption.