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目的 预测气候变暖对中国血吸虫病传播影响的程度及范围。 方法 利用全国 193个气象站 195 1～2 0 0 0年的气象数据资料 ,建立地理信息系统 (GIS)气象数据库 ,分析全国日均温度变化趋势。利用已建立的钉螺和日本血吸虫有效积温 (SDT)模型的结果 ,构建全国不同地区血吸虫病气候 传播模型 ,计算各地钉螺和日本血吸虫年有效积温(ET) ,并应用GIS等技术比较分析ET/SDT比值的时空分布。以 2 0 3 0年和 2 0 5 0年我国平均气温将分别上升 1.7℃和2 .2℃为依据 ,预测未来全国血吸虫病流行区的扩散趋势和高危地带。 结果 建立了全国血吸虫病气象GIS数据库 ,在以前的 5 0年中全国平均温度略呈上升趋势 ,尤其在上世纪 90年代后上升趋势明显 ,回归方程为T年平均 =0 .0 198X -2 8.476。构建了血吸虫病气候 传播模型 ,钉螺和日本血吸虫的ET/SDT的比值随年代略呈上升趋势 ,日本血吸虫的潜在分布区域大于钉螺潜在分布区域。 2 0 3 0年和 2 0 5 0年血吸虫病潜在传播区域预测分布图显示 ,血吸虫病流行区将明显北移 ,2 0 5 0年血吸虫病潜在流行的敏感区域较 2 0 3 0年的明显扩大。 结论 血吸虫病潜在流行区将随气候变暖出现北移 ,北移敏感区域是今后我国流行区北界线的监测工作重点
Objective To predict the extent and extent of the impact of climate warming on the spread of schistosomiasis in China. Methods Based on the meteorological data of 193 weather stations in China from 1951 to 2000, a geographic information system (GIS) meteorological database was established to analyze the trend of daily average temperature in China. Based on the results of established snails and Schistosoma japonicum effective temperature (SDT) model, the climate transmission models of schistosomiasis in different regions of China were constructed, and the annual effective accumulated temperature (ET) of S. japonicum and Schistosoma japonicum were calculated. GIS and other techniques were used to analyze ET / SDT Spatio-temporal distribution of ratio. Based on the forecast that the average temperature in our country will increase by 1.7 ℃ and 2.2 ℃ respectively in 2010 and 2005, the trend of spreading and high-risk areas in the future endemic areas of schistosomiasis will be predicted. Results A national GIS database of schistosomiasis was set up. The average temperature in China increased slightly in the past 50 years, especially in the 1990s. The regression equation was T = 0.198 x -2 8.476 . The climate transmission model of schistosomiasis was constructed. The ratio of ET / SDT of Schistosoma japonicum and Schistosoma japonicum increased slightly with age. The potential distribution of Schistosoma japonicum was greater than that of snail. The projected distribution of schistosomiasis potential transmission in 2030 and 2050 shows that the endemic area of schistosomiasis will be significantly shifted northward and the potentially epidemic sensitive area of schistosomiasis in 2005 will be more significant than that in 2030 expand. Conclusions The potential epidemic area of schistosomiasis will shift northward with the warming of climate and the sensitive area of northward migration will be the focus of monitoring the north boundary of endemic areas in our country in the future