本文在简化的真实经济周期模型的基础上,分析了汇率、货币量对产出波动的自回归关系,并在实证检验中将实际汇率波动对经济波动的影响分解为名义汇价和外汇储备两个方面,构建VAR模型并进行脉冲分析,从而得到“汇改”后汇率波动和货币量供给对经济波动的实际影响,并得到名义汇价、外汇储备变动和货币量对产出的不同作用效果,据此提出政策方面的建议。 Based on the simplified real economic cycle model, this paper analyzes the autoregressive relationship between the exchange rate and the monetary output on the output volatility. In the empirical test, the influence of the real exchange rate volatility on the economic fluctuation is decomposed into two nominal exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves We construct the VAR model and conduct the pulse analysis to get the actual impact of the exchange rate volatility and the money supply on the economic fluctuation after the exchange reform and obtain the different effect of the nominal exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve and the output of the currency , According to which the policy recommendations.