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基于一阶可靠性法(FORM)、二阶可靠性法(SORM)和蒙特卡罗法对柔性路面可靠性进行模拟分析。通过敏感度分析,可知面层厚度是影响疲劳和车辙这两种破坏模式可靠性设计的关键参数。这两种破坏模式之间存在较高的相关性,同时发生破坏的概率与某一破坏发生的概率相近。此外,随着平均交通量小幅度增加,发生破坏的概率会相对增加,致使系统可靠性的界限更广。
The reliability of flexible pavement is simulated based on first-order reliability method (FORM), second-order reliability method (SORM) and Monte Carlo method. Sensitivity analysis shows that the surface thickness is the key parameter in the reliability design of the two failure modes that affect fatigue and rutting. There is a high correlation between these two modes of destruction, and the probability of simultaneous destruction is similar to the probability of a certain damage occurring. In addition, as the average traffic volume increases slightly, the probability of damage will increase relatively, resulting in a wider range of system reliability.