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在电力产业市场化改革的背景下,商业化电网投资越来越受到重视,其投资激励的有效性也受到广泛关注。本文以电力需求的不确定性为切入点,运用风险分析的方法,研究了不确定电力需求对商业化电网投资激励的影响。研究结论表明,当存在电力需求的不确定性时,只有当消费者和电网投资商都是风险中性时,商业化电网投资制度才能引致有效的电网投资水平;只要消费者和电网投资商中有一方是风险规避的,则商业化电网投资制度将导致电网投资激励不足。
In the context of the market-oriented reform of the power industry, commercial power grid investment has drawn more and more attention and the effectiveness of its investment incentives has drawn wide attention. In this paper, the uncertainty of electricity demand as the starting point, the use of risk analysis method, the uncertainty of electricity demand on commercial power grid investment incentives. The conclusion of the study shows that when there is uncertainty in the demand of electricity, the investment system of commercial power grid can only lead to an effective level of investment in power grids only when both consumers and power grid investors are risk-neutral. As long as consumers and power grid investors have One side is risk-averse, then the commercial power grid investment system will lead to inadequate incentives for grid investment.