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本文以辽宁省 1 991～ 1 999年冬小麦地理播种试验观测资料和现代气象观测资料为基础 ,系统研究了辽宁省冬小麦的种植北界问题。根据试验观测资料 ,利用灰色关联分析方法 ,揭示出越冬前积温、越冬前降水、越冬期负积温以及 5～ 6月份降水是影响冬麦种植的 4个关键性影响因子。通过对逐年越冬前活动积温所作的分析 ,得到了气候保证率在80 %以上的北界 ,并利用负地积温指标对所确定的北界进行了验证。结论是辽宁省冬麦可北移至本溪—抚顺—法库—彰武—阜新—北票—朝阳一线 (约 42 .5°N)
In this paper, based on the observation data and the modern meteorological observation data of winter wheat geography in Liaoning Province from 1991 to 1999, we systematically studied the northern boundary planting of winter wheat in Liaoning Province. According to the experimental observation data, the gray correlation analysis method is used to reveal four important factors affecting the winter wheat planting: accumulated temperature before winter, pre-winter precipitation, negative accumulated temperature during winter, and precipitation from May to June. Based on the analysis of accumulated accumulated temperature before winter overwintering, the northern boundary with the climate guarantee rate above 80% was obtained, and the north boundary determined by the negative accumulated temperature index was verified. The conclusion is that winter wheat in Liaoning Province can move northward to Benxi-Fushun-Faku-Zhangwu-Fuxin-Beipiao-Chaoyang line (about 42.5 ° N)