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信贷紧缩背景下,民间资本规模不断扩大,对企业发展和效益的影响也逐渐增强。首先,本课题通过加权平均资本成本(WACC)模型,建立了民间借贷利率和企业融资成本的联系,同时统计了沪深两市企业的息税前利润率,运用核密度估计得到息税前利润率的概率分布。然后,通过比较资本成本和息税前利润率,构建损失比例这一指标,我们发现企业损失比例对民间借贷利率的函数呈阶梯状分布。进一步实证分析,我们发现2010年末到2011年民间借贷利率的变化正处在突变的节点,企业损失比例剧增并引发“跑路”潮。
In the context of the credit crunch, the scale of private capital has been continuously expanding, and the impact on the development and efficiency of enterprises has also been gradually enhanced. First of all, the subject establishes the relationship between private lending interest rates and corporate finance costs through the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) model. At the same time, it calculates the pre-EBIT margin of enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and uses the nuclear density to estimate the EBIT Probability distribution of rates. Then, by comparing the cost of capital with the profit before interest and tax, a measure of the proportion of loss is constructed. We find that the proportion of business losses has a stepwise distribution to the function of private lending rates. Further empirical analysis, we find that the change of private lending rates from the end of 2010 to 2011 is at the node of mutation, and the proportion of business losses has sharply increased and triggered the tide of “running way”.