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目的分析气象因素对手足口病发病的影响,为传染病预防控制提供科学依据。方法利用广义相加Quasi-Poisson模型,对北京市海淀区2008—2014年手足口周发病数的时间序列和同期气象因素的关系进行分析。结果北京市海淀区2008年1月1日至2014年12月31日手足口病共报告33 704例,平均周报92例,发病率为143.8/10万。其中男性20 718例,女性12 986例,男女性别比为1.60∶1。全年各月均有报告,发病高峰主要出现在5—8月,共发病24 460例,占发病总数的72.57%。2008—2014年发病率总体呈现上升趋势,其中2009年发病率最低,为94.2/10万(2 904例);2010年发病率最高,为216.9/10万(7 115例)。发病呈现明显的季节性,发病高峰主要集中在夏、秋季。当平均温度、相对湿度、日照时数分别超过阈值(9.1℃,40.2%,7.7 h)时,每增加1个单位,手足口发病人数分别增加4.81%(95%CI=3.99%~5.64%)、0.30%(95%CI=0.10%~0.50%)、2.02%(95%CI=0.63%~3.43%),且趋势均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05)。当大气气压低于阈值(1 014.5 k Pa)时,大气气压每降低1 k Pa导致手足口发病人数增加5.76%(95%CI=4.52%~7.01%)。结论气象因素可能是手足口发病的一个重要影响因素,在今后的疾病防控工作中应予以考虑。广义相加模型可应用于分析手足口病与气候因素的相互关系。
Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods The generalized additive Quasi-Poisson model was used to analyze the relationship between the time series of HFMD and the meteorological factors during 2008-2014 in Haidian District, Beijing. Results A total of 33 704 HFMD cases were reported from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2014 in Haidian District, Beijing. The average weekly newspaper was 92 cases with an incidence rate of 143.8 / 100 000. There were 20,718 males and 12,986 females, with a sex ratio of 1.60: 1. Reports were made throughout the year and the peak incidence peaked from May to August with a total of 24 460 cases, accounting for 72.57% of the total. In 2008-2014, the overall incidence showed an upward trend, with the lowest incidence in 2009 being 94.2 / 100 000 (2 904 cases) and the highest incidence in 2010 was 216.9 / 100 000 (7 115 cases). The incidence showed obvious seasonal peak incidence mainly in summer and autumn. When the average temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours exceeded the threshold (9.1 ℃, 40.2%, 7.7 h) respectively, the number of hand-foot mouth increased by 4.81% (95% CI = 3.99% -5.64%) for every additional unit. , 0.30% (95% CI = 0.10% ~ 0.50%) and 2.02% (95% CI = 0.63% ~ 3.43%). The trend was statistically significant (P <0.05). When the atmospheric pressure is lower than the threshold (1 014.5 kPa), every 1 kPa decrease in atmospheric pressure leads to an increase of 5.76% (95% CI = 4.52% -7.01%) in the incidence of HFMD. Conclusion The meteorological factors may be an important factor in the pathogenesis of HFMD and should be considered in future disease prevention and control. Generalized additive model can be applied to analyze the relationship between HFMD and climatic factors.