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本文由强地震的重复性、中小地震活动图象与强震发生的时空关系、破裂空段、大地震的减震性及华北5—10年危险性估计入手,利用综合概率法,讨论描述潜在震源区时空不均匀性的途经与方法。并以河北省北部的部份潜在震源区为例,确定了描述这些潜在震源区时空不均匀性的加权系数,并结合由韦布尔分布确定的年发生率,得出了可应用于危险性分析的不同的年发生率。
This article starts with the repeatability of strong earthquakes, the temporal and spatial relationships between the image of small and medium earthquakes and the occurrence of strong earthquakes, the attenuation of empty earthquakes, the shock absorption of large earthquakes and the 5-10 years risk assessment in North China. By using the method of general probability, Way and method of temporal and spatial heterogeneity in source area. Taking some potential source regions in the northern part of Hebei Province as an example, we have determined the weight coefficients that describe the spatiotemporal nonuniformity of these potential source regions. Combining the annual incidence rate determined by Weibull distribution, The different annual incidences.