从地貌地质环境、地面气象要素、大气环流背景、T213数值预报产品和卫星资料等方面,着重分析诱发灾害的气象条件,对2007年9月4日西藏波密县古乡天摩沟发生的一次特大泥石流地质灾害事件成因进行初步分析。结果表明:由于前期气温持续偏高,加剧冰川融水,加上9月4日凌晨出现强降水,天摩沟地形高度落差大、松散固体物质丰富,水源、能量转化和物源三种条件同时满足[1],是造成这次特大泥石流地质灾害的直接原因。 Based on the geomorphic geomorphology, ground meteorological elements, atmospheric circulation background, T213 numerical prediction products and satellite data, this paper focuses on the meteorological conditions of disastrous disasters, and on the one occurred once on September 4, 2007, The causes of geological disasters caused by special debris flow are analyzed preliminarily. The results show that due to the continuous high temperature in the early stage and aggravating glacier meltwater, together with heavy rainfall in the early hours of September 4, the terrain height of the Tianzhu ridge is large and the loose solid material is abundant. Simultaneously, three conditions of water source, energy conversion and provenance Satisfaction [1] is the direct cause of the geological disasters caused by this extraordinary debris flow.