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公路交通需求预测是公路项目可行性研究中的重要内容。基年交通需求OD矩阵和交通需求预测模型的建立是交通需求预测的两个既有区别又有联系的关键组成部分。本文讨论了利用部分OD矩阵资料来推算完整基年OD矩阵的方法。在建立交通需求预测模型时,引入了“地区势能”这个新的解释变量,克服了传统预测方法中的不足。同时,对预测结果提出了家用小汽车的发展影响和产业结构的变化影响这两项修正,使预测更能反映我国今后交通需求的发展趋势和特征,具有现实作用和意义。
Highway traffic demand forecasting is an important part of highway project feasibility study. The establishment of the OD matrices for traffic demand in the base year and the traffic demand forecasting model are two key components of the traffic demand forecasting that are both distinctive and relevant. This article discusses the use of some OD matrix data to estimate the OD of a complete base year. When establishing the traffic demand forecasting model, the new explanatory variable of “regional potential energy” is introduced, which overcomes the deficiencies in the traditional forecasting methods. At the same time, the two amendments to the prediction of the impact of the development of domestic cars and the impact of changes in industrial structure are proposed so that the prediction can better reflect the development trend and characteristics of China’s transportation demand in the future. This is of realistic significance and significance.