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以经济发展与环境污染水平计量模型——环境库兹涅茨曲线为理论基础,选取1981年以来工业废水、SO2、烟尘、工业废弃固体等污染物有效排放量为环境指标,采用人均GDP作为经济发展水平指标,通过二次及三次方程拟合回归,建立最优模型,分析了山东省经济不断发展与污染物排放量变化之间的关系。结果表明:进行三次曲线回归模拟效果较好,四项环境指标与经济发展水平的环境库兹涅茨曲线均呈现出近似“N”形的特征,污染物排放随着人均GDP增长都已经渡过了峰值,呈现下降趋势,但是近几年来,下降趋势停止并产生波动;环境库兹涅茨曲线特征与山东省产业结构变化以及环境保护政策有显著关系。根据研究结果,提出加强污染治理投资、增强环境保护意识以及完善环境保护法律法规等建议,避免环境污染水平随经济增长再次呈现上升趋势。
Taking the economic development and environmental pollution level measurement model - Environmental Kuznets Curve as the theoretical basis, the effective emission of pollutants such as industrial waste water, SO2, soot and industrial solid waste since 1981 was taken as the environmental index, and per capita GDP was adopted as the economic Through the regression of fitting quadratic and cubic equations, the optimal model was established, and the relationship between the continuous economic development in Shandong Province and the change of pollutant emissions was analyzed. The results show that the regression of cubic curve is effective and the environmental Kuznets curve of four environmental indicators and economic development shows the characteristic of “” N "shape. The emission of pollutants has been increased with the increase of per capita GDP After the peak, showing a downward trend, but in recent years, the downward trend ceased and volatility; environmental Kuznets Curve characteristics and Shandong Province, industrial structure changes and environmental protection policies have a significant relationship. According to the results of the study, suggestions are put forward to strengthen investment in pollution control, enhance awareness of environmental protection and improve laws and regulations on environmental protection so as to prevent the environmental pollution level from rising again with economic growth.