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目的探究2006-2013年昆山市食管癌发病与死亡趋势。方法食管癌发病病例来源于昆山市恶性肿瘤登记报告系统,死亡病例来源于死因登记;计算食管癌粗发病(死亡)率与年龄标化发病(死亡)率;使用Join-point回归计算发病率与死亡率平均年度变化百分比(Annual Percentage Change,APC)。结果 2006-2013年间,食管癌年龄标化发病率呈现下降趋势(APC=-8.6%,95%CI:-11.1~-6.2);男性中也呈现了显著的下降趋势(APC=-9.0%,95%CI:-11.8~-6.2);而女性下降趋势未能发现统计学显著性差异(APC=-6.3%,95%CI:-13.2~0.6)。食管癌年龄标化死亡率在两者(APC=-10.6%,95%CI:-14.5~-6.7)、男性(APC=-8.3%,95%CI:-12.3~-4.3)及女性(APC=-15.6%,95%CI:-22.5~-8.7)中均有显著下降趋势。结论虽然当前食管癌年龄标化死亡率与发病率呈现下降态势,但是女性发病率下降趋势不明显,仍需加强预防措施从根本上遏制食管癌的发生。
Objective To explore the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Kunshan City from 2006 to 2013. Methods The incidence of esophageal cancer originated from Kunshan malignant tumor registration and reporting system. The deaths were from the cause of death registration. The rates of crude disease (death) and age-standardized morbidity (death) of esophageal cancer were calculated. The incidence of esophageal cancer was calculated using Join- Annual Percentage Change (APC). Results The age-standardized incidence of esophageal cancer showed a decreasing trend (APC = -8.6%, 95% CI: -11.1 ~ -6.2) between 2006 and 2013, and also showed a significant downward trend in men (APC = -9.0% 95% CI: -11.8 ~ -6.2). However, no statistically significant difference was found in the downward trend of women (APC = -6.3%, 95% CI: -13.2 ~ 0.6). The age-standardized mortality of esophageal cancer was significantly higher in both women (APC = -10.6%, 95% CI: -14.5 -6.7), men (APC -8.3%, 95% CI12.3-4.3) and women = -15.6%, 95% CI: -22.5 ~ -8.7) showed a significant downward trend. Conclusions Although the age-standardized death rate and incidence of esophageal cancer show a declining trend, the decreasing trend of female morbidity is not obvious. Therefore, preventive measures should be taken to prevent esophageal cancer from occurring fundamentally.