:1998年 8月 8日 ,清江流域超过了千年一遇的洪水标准 ,隔河岩大坝蓄水位高达 2 0 3 .94m,超出正常蓄水位3 .94m,对长江下游防洪渡汛起了巨大的作用。在进行隔河岩大坝 1998年变形监测资料分析中 ,选择 3条横线 (坝顶 2 0 6m高程、坝体 14 5 m高程和坝基 ) ,4条竖线 (右拱座 # 10坝段、拱冠# 15坝段、左拱座 # 2 1坝段和重力墩# 2 6坝段 )的分析路径 ,采用物理推断法对变形量大的测点作了特征值分析 ;针对呈多峰曲线型的监测数据 ,采用广义线性多项式逐步回归方法建立了变形模型 ;最后对大坝工作状况作出初步分析。 : On August 8, 1998, the Qingjiang River Basin exceeded the once-in-a-century flood standard. The Geheyan Dam’s water level reached as high as 203.9m, exceeding the normal water level of 3.94m. Since the flood control of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River A huge role. During the analysis of deformation monitoring data of Geheyan dam in 1998, three horizontal lines (elevation of 206m, height of 14 5m and dam foundation) and 4 vertical lines (right abutment # 10 dam , Arch crown # 15 dam section, left abutment # 2 1 dam section and gravity pier # 2 6 dam section), the eigenvalue analysis was made on the measuring points with large deformation by physical inference method; Curve-type monitoring data, the generalized linear polynomial stepwise regression method was used to establish the deformation model; finally, the dam working conditions were initially analyzed.