论文部分内容阅读
有效市场理论指出:金融市场上的预期等于运用所有可知信息作出最佳预测。因此,根据有效市场理论的观点,通常股价的变化被认为是由未来股息的“新信息”所导致。而经济学家和股市分析家在分析公司普通股价格波动时,便常常认为,实际的股价等于理性期望或最优预测的未来股息的折现值。但从股价波动的原因以及影响未来股息变动的因素分析中可以发现,以未来股息变化用来解释股价波动性可能有些勉强。
Efficient market theory states that the expectation in financial markets equals the best forecast using all known information. Therefore, according to the theory of EMT, the change of the stock price is generally considered to be caused by the “new information” of the future dividend. Economists and stock market analysts, in analyzing the volatility of common stock prices, often think that the actual stock price is equal to the discounted value of the rational expectation or the optimally predicted future dividend. However, from the reasons of the stock price volatility and the factors influencing the future dividend changes, we can find that the future dividend changes can be used to explain the stock price volatility may be somewhat reluctant.