论文部分内容阅读
事件的来龙去脉美国在9月11日遭受恐怖袭击后,要评估这种灾难的影响,主要视事件的来龙去脉而定。我们对美国及全球经济前景作出比一般人保守的预测,并以此评估此事。美国消费者信心受冲击这场灾难决定了美国消费者的命运。消费者对美国及全球经济仅余的支持,包括非必要消费及与房屋相关的活动,可能会成为“9·11惨剧”的受害者。影响全球一体化这场灾难可能冲击全球一体化的根基,包括急速扩展的贸易及资金流向、全球化的供应链以及剧增的跨国企业活动。私人企业对建立全球商业联系的兴趣和意愿可能因此大减。一线曙光只有美国及全球经济的U形复苏提早来临,人们才能松一口气,但风险在于,反弹将不会太明显或无法持久。经济结论我们已将2001年全球本地生产总值的增长预测降至1.5％,而2002年的数字则维持于约3.0％。这场灾难很有可能成为美国于2001年陷入经济衰退的导火线。对市场及政策的影响联储局将更加倾向于放宽货币政策,而当局亦较可能会采取加强国防的财政措施。初期资金会流向国库券及美元等优质资产,继而孳息曲线(yield curve)可能会更加陡斜。
The ins and outs of the incident After the United States suffered a terrorist attack on September 11, it is important to assess the impact of such a disaster, depending on the circumstances of the incident. We assessed the issue by making a conservative prediction of the general economic outlook in the United States and the world. Impact on US consumer confidence The disaster dictates the fate of American consumers. Consumers’ only support for the United States and the global economy, including non-essential spending and housing-related activities, may become the victims of the “September 11 tragedy.” Implications for Global Integration This catastrophe can impact the foundations of global integration, including the rapidly expanding trade and financial flows, the globalized supply chain and the proliferation of multinational activities. The private enterprise’s interest and willingness to establish a global business connection may be greatly reduced. A Glimmer of Hope Only one U-shaped recovery of the United States and the global economy can come to an early start, but the risk is that the rally will not be too obvious or unsustainable. Economic Conclusion We have reduced the growth forecast of global GDP for 2001 to 1.5%, compared with the figure of 3.0% for 2002. This disaster is likely to be the culmination of the U.S. recession in 2001. Impact on Markets and Policies The Fed will be more inclined to loosen its monetary policy and the authorities are more likely to take fiscal measures to strengthen national defense. Initial funding flows to high-quality assets such as Treasury bills and the U.S. dollar, and the yield curve may be steeper.