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我国居民收入水平提高带来畜产品消费不断增长,拉动了饲料进口规模的持续扩大。本文利用三元边际分析方法,基于2000—2015年我国共从97个伙伴国进口饲料产品的贸易数据,对饲料产品的进口增长因素及其作用进行研究,利用核密度估计在双边贸易层面验证了结果的稳健性。研究表明,我国饲料产品进口的快速增长主要由数量增长引起,主要原因是饲料产品刚性需求的增加;进口产品种类较多且基本保持稳定,对进口增长的贡献主要表现在短时期的进口波动及部分进口市场上;进口价格历史上长期偏高,由于进口的市场结构优化及产品结构改变,进口价格呈逐渐下降趋势,目前已接近国际市场平均水平;随着贸易规模的扩大,贸易条件正逐步改善。
The increase in the income level of our residents brings about a continuous increase in the consumption of livestock products, driving the continuous expansion of the scale of feed imports. Based on the trade data of imported feed products from 97 partner countries in 2000-2015 in our country, this paper studies the factors of import growth of feed products and their effects by using the method of ternary marginal analysis. Using the nuclear density estimation, we verify the effect of bilateral trade The robustness of the results. The research shows that the rapid growth of China’s feed products import is mainly caused by the increase in quantity, mainly due to the increase of rigid demand of feed products. The imported products are more and remain basically stable, the contribution to the growth of imports is mainly reflected in the short-term import fluctuation and Part of the import market; import prices historically high, due to import market structure optimization and product mix changes, the import price showed a downward trend, is now close to the international market average; with the expansion of trade, trade conditions are gradually improve.