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本文研究了家庭高杠杆率和危机如何作为收入分配变化的结果出现。从经验上看,1920~1929年和1983~2008年两个阶段都表现出高收入家庭群体的收入占比大幅增加,剩余债务杠杆率的大量增加导致了金融危机和实体经济危机。本文介绍了高收入家庭群体不断增长的收入占比所衍生的高杠杆率和危机模型。该模型匹配了大萧条和大衰退前数十年的收入分配情况、债务收入比和危机风险。
This article examines how high household leverage and crisis emerge as a result of changes in income distribution. From an empirical point of view, both the 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 periods show a substantial increase in the share of income of high-income families and a substantial increase in the remaining debt leverage leading to the financial crisis and the real economy crisis. This article describes the high leverage and crisis models that have resulted from the growing share of income of high-income households. The model matches the income distribution, debt-to-income ratio and crisis risk over the decades before the Great Depression and the Great Recession.