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在系统搜集、整理明清苏浙沿海潮灾记录基础上,建立风暴潮频率辨识方法,复原台风风暴潮灾害750次,据此建立逐年风暴潮频率序列。分析显示,1460~1480年、1570~1595年、1715~1745年、1785~1810年、1880~1890年为风暴潮活跃期。明清苏浙沿海风暴潮存在45 a、25 a、14 a三种时间尺度周期,其中45 a周期最为显著。气候跃变分析表明,1402年、1457年、1566年、1624年、1652年、1711年、1846年、1880年风暴潮活动趋于活跃;1444年、1477年、1543年、1634年、1799年、1856年风暴潮趋于平静。与1470年以来温度距平曲线对比显示,气候冷暖与风暴潮发生频率有一定正相关性,全球变暖背景下苏浙沿海可能面临更为严重的风暴潮威胁。苏浙地区明清时期风暴潮灾害空间分布差异明显,大部分风暴潮记载集中于长三角、杭州湾地区,苏北地区风暴潮数量少但影响范围广,浙东地区受地形和经济发展程度影响,风暴潮记载数量少且集中于滨海。
On the basis of systematically collecting and arranging records of coastal tidal waves in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the Ming and Qing Dynasties, a frequency identification method of storm tide was established to recover typhoon storm surge disaster 750 times, and a series of annual storm surge frequency was established. The analysis shows that the periods of 1460 ~ 1480, 1570 ~ 1595, 1715 ~ 1745, 1785 ~ 1810 and 1880 ~ 1890 are the active periods of storm surge. The coastal storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang during Ming and Qing Dynasties have three timescale periods of 45 a, 25 a and 14 a, of which the 45 a period is the most significant. The climatic jump analysis shows that the storm surge activities in 1402, 1457, 1566, 1624, 1652, 1711, 1846 and 1880 tended to be active; 1444, 1477, 1543, 1634 and 1799 In 1856 storm surges tended to be calm. Compared with the curve of temperature anomaly since 1470, there is a certain positive correlation between the warm and cold climate and the frequency of storm surge. Under the background of global warming, the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang may face the more serious storm surge threat. The spatial distribution of storm surge disasters in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces was significantly different. Most of the storm surge records were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and Hangzhou Bay. The small number of storm surges in northern Jiangsu affected a wide range of impacts. The eastern Zhejiang was affected by the topography and economic development , A small number of storm surge records and concentrated in the coastal.