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１９７４ ～１９９７ 年观测资料表明，影响４ 代棉铃虫发生程度的关键因素有：３ 代棉铃虫百株累计卵量，６ ～７ 月平均相对湿度，６ ～７ 月日降水量≥０ ．１ ｍ ｍ 的总日数，６ 月下旬～７ 月中旬（ 即梅雨期） 降水量，６ 月下旬～７ 月中旬温雨系数。根据相关性、时效性及稳定性原则，选取前３ 个因素作为预报因子，运用模糊综合评判法进行预报，历史符合率８７ ．５ ％ 。１９９８ 年试报准确。
The observation data from 1974 to 1997 showed that the key factors affecting the occurrence of 4th generation cotton bollworm were the cumulative egg production of one generation of three generations of H. armigera, the average relative humidity from June to July, and the daily precipitation from June to July ≥0. The total days of 1 m m, the precipitation from late June to mid July (ie, Meiyu period), and the warm rain coefficient from late June to mid July. According to the principle of relevance, timeliness and stability, the first three factors are selected as the forecasting factors and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to forecast the historical coincidence rate of 87. 5%. 1998 trial reported accurately.