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汇率传递方向是决定汇率能否调节贸易失衡的关键因素。本文基于生产者均衡理论,从消费者需求价格弹性视角,分析国外出口商定价能力影响汇率传递方向的机制,并运用存量调整模型进行实证检验。结果显示:总体上看,汇率升值会显著降低进口价格,汇率传递方向为负。进一步通过SITC分类的实证结果表明,国外出口商定价能力较弱时,仍然支持汇率传递方向为负的典型结论,但随着国外出口商定价能力提升,出现了正向汇率传递。因此,汇率变动对不同种类商品贸易失衡的调节作用存在较大差异,盲目采用汇率工具可能会加重部分种类商品的贸易失衡。
The direction of the exchange rate is the key factor that determines whether the exchange rate can adjust the trade imbalance. Based on the theory of producer equilibrium and the price elasticity of consumer demand, this paper analyzes the mechanism by which foreign exporter pricing power affects the direction of exchange rate transfer, and uses the stock adjustment model for empirical test. The results show that on the whole, the appreciation of the exchange rate will significantly reduce the import price and the exchange rate will be negative. Empirical results based on the SITC classification further show that when exporters have weak pricing power, they still support the typical conclusion that the direction of the exchange rate is negative. However, with the increase of the pricing power of exporters, the positive exchange rate has appeared. Therefore, the regulatory effect of exchange rate changes on the trade imbalances between different types of goods is quite different. Using exchange rate instruments blindly may aggravate the trade imbalance of some kinds of commodities.