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关于卖方行业分析师的盈利预测偏差现象,本文首次提出:分析师的预测偏差同时受到部分理性和有限理性两方面因素的影响,并通过深交所主板市场数据证实了该假说。首先,公司治理水平(部分理性因素)对分析师预测偏差有显著影响;其次,在控制公司治理水平因素后,分析师盈利预测偏差仍然受到投资者情绪的显著正向影响;再次,对于公司治理水平高的公司,分析师盈利预测偏差受投资者情绪的影响小;反之亦然。最后,笔者利用行为金融理论解释了情绪对分析师偏差影响的机理。
This article first put forward that the analyst’s forecast bias is affected by both the partial rationality and the bounded rationality at the same time. The hypothesis is confirmed by the data of Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s main board. First, the level of corporate governance (some of the rational factors) has a significant impact on the analyst’s forecast bias. Second, after controlling for the level of corporate governance, analysts’ earnings forecast bias is still significantly positively influenced by investor sentiment. Thirdly, for corporate governance High-level companies, analysts’ earnings forecast bias is less affected by investor sentiment; and vice versa. Finally, the author uses behavioral finance theory to explain the mechanism of the influence of emotion on analyst bias.