论文部分内容阅读
为了研究工矿商贸就业人员10万人生产安全事故死亡率时间序列变化特征,基于我国行业生产安全事故死亡人数及第二、三产业就业人员数量等2方面年度统计数据,通过研究事故死亡率时间序列的自回归移动平均过程,论文构建了事故死亡率时间序列的分阶段自回归移动平均模型.研究表明:工矿商贸行业10万人事故死亡率变化趋势具有明显的分阶段波动特征,事故死亡率序列均为趋势平稳过程;序列当期观测值与滞后1期观测值具有显著的自相关性;各阶段事故率自回归移动平均模型结构不尽相同;特征描述模型为正确把握我国安全生产状况及趋势提供理论依据.
In order to study the time-series change characteristics of the accident-related fatality rate of 100,000 workers in industrial and mining trades, based on the annual statistical data of the number of industrial safety accidents in China and the number of employed persons in the secondary and tertiary industries, the accident mortality rate time series The paper constructs a phased autoregressive moving average model of accidental mortality time series.The research shows that the trend of accidental death rate of industrial and mining trades is obviously fluctuated in stages and the sequence of accidental mortality The trend of the trend is steady; the observed value of the current period of the sequence has a significant autocorrelation with the observed value of the lagged period 1; the autoregressive moving average model structure of the accident rate varies in each stage; the feature description model provides the information for correctly grasping the state of safety in our country and the trend Theoretical basis.