中国近期不宜实施全面减税的税收政策

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朱基总理在2001年3月5日召开的九届全国人大四次会议所作的关于国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要报告中指出:近期要继续实行积极的财政政策,带动企业和社会投资,促进消费。这表明在我国实施积极的财政政策并不是一种短期的权宜之计,而更像是一个中期的相机抉择策略。如何用好、用活积极财政政策,成为我们应进一步思考和研究的重要问题。积极财政政策又称为扩张性财政政策,其手段无非两种:一是在增发国债的基础上扩大财政支出;二是减税。在我国目前的环境下,尤其是在世界减税浪潮的冲击下,究竟是应该两种手段双管齐下,还是应该单纯依靠财政支出独挑大梁?本文认为,目前在我国大规模减税既不具有可行性,又不会取得预期的效果。其主要理由是:全面减税会恶化政府财政能力的脆弱基础,并必然引发潜在的公共财政风险;全面减税不会有预期的减负效应,同时其政策效应还要受到现行税制结构的约束;全面减税不利于税收运行秩序的规范,特别是以税收紧缩效应为名搞全面减税更不可取。 In his report on the 10th five-year plan for national economic and social development made by the Fourth Session of the Ninth National People’s Congress on March 5, 2001, Premier Zhu Rongji pointed out: In the near future, it is necessary to continue implementing the proactive fiscal policy to boost the cooperation between enterprises and Social investment, promote consumption. This shows that the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy in our country is not a short-term expedient, but rather a medium-term camera choice strategy. How to make good use of the living and active fiscal policy has become an important issue that we should think about and study further. Positive fiscal policy, also known as expansionary fiscal policy, is no more than two ways: First, to expand fiscal spending on the basis of the issuance of national debt; second, to cut taxes. Under the current environment of our country, especially under the impact of the world’s tax relief tide, should two measures be adopted in a two-pronged approach or should we rely solely on fiscal expenditure alone? This paper argues that the current large-scale tax cuts in our country are neither viable nor achieve the desired results. The main reason for this is that a comprehensive tax reduction will aggravate the fragile foundation of the government’s fiscal capacity and inevitably lead to potential public financial risks. There will be no expected tax reduction effect on overall tax cuts. At the same time, their policy effects are also subject to the current tax structure. A comprehensive tax reduction is not conducive to regulating the order of tax operations. In particular, it is even more undesirable to engage in a comprehensive tax reduction in the name of the tax contractionary effect.
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