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文章利用1991～2009年中国31个省份城镇和农村居民的人口、消费支出和收入的数据,基于居民总消费分解模型,进行省际面板回归估计。实证结果表明,城镇居民消费支出增长对中国居民总消费增长的贡献率最大;农村居民消费支出增长的贡献率位列第二,但呈现出下降的趋势;农村向城镇人口迁移引起的消费支出增长的贡献率位列第三。考虑到城乡收入和消费支出的差异,文章认为,居民总消费增长的路径将主要依赖于城镇居民消费支出增长和农村向城市的人口迁移,并提出通过制度改革增加居民收入、放宽并完善人口迁移政策等建议。
Based on the population, consumption expenditure and income data of urban and rural residents in 31 provinces of China from 1991 to 2009, the article estimates the provincial panel returns based on the model of resident consumption decomposition. The empirical results show that the growth of urban residents’ consumption expenditure has the largest contribution to the growth of total consumption of Chinese residents. The contribution rate of rural residents’ consumption expenditure increases to the second place, but it shows a declining trend. The growth of rural residents’ Contribution rate ranked third. Taking into account the differences between urban and rural incomes and consumer expenditures, this paper argues that the path of total household consumption growth will mainly depend on the growth of urban residents ’consumption expenditures and the rural-urban migration, and proposes to increase residents’ income and relax and improve the population migration through institutional reforms Policy recommendations.