经济系统预测越来越多地采用动态系统分析的方法,即研究离散时间序列动态过程的辨识、建模和预报。本文用最近发展起来的灰色系统建模方法和现代时间序列分析方法,建立了两个动态预测模型,预报某省 1985～2000 年的粮食产量。两个模型所得结果比较接近,经过误差检验,结果具有参考价值。 Economic system prediction is increasingly adopting the method of dynamic system analysis to study the identification, modeling and forecasting of discrete time series dynamic processes. In this paper, we use the gray system modeling method developed recently and the modern time series analysis method to establish two dynamic prediction models to forecast the grain output of a province from 1985 to 2000. The results obtained by the two models are relatively close, after the error test, the results have reference value.