China’s ASEAN Overtures

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  CHINA’s No. 1 and No. 2 leaders both vis- ited ASEAN countries in October. From October 2 to 5, 2013 President Xi Jinping visited Indonesia and Malaysia, and then attended the 21st economic leaders’ meeting at the APEC forum in Bali. Hot on his heels, on October 9, Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Brunei, where he attended the 16th ASEAN-China (10+1) Summit, the 16th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Summit, and the 8th East Asia Summit. From there Li then headed to Thailand and Vietnam.
  These visits signify positive trends in ChinaASEAN relations, testifying to China’s willingness to overcome neighborly territorial disputes in the South China Sea through sincere and friendly cooperation with all parties resolving to sustain peace and amity in the region.
   China-ASEAN Ties: Cornerstone of Asian Prosperity and Stability
  China has reason enough to enhance ties with ASEAN. While none of its member states constitute a “big power,” the bloc is of strategic significance to China given its proximity and size. Yet with its scope, the relationship with ASEAN could decide China’s securing of a leading role in the Asia-Pacific.
  China is now ASEAN’s largest trade partner. By the end of June 2013, two-way investment between China and ASEAN had exceeded US $100 billion with close to US $30 billion coming from China. Chinese investment in ASEAN has been growing by more than 15 percent year-on-year, accounting for 5.1 percent of China’s total investment abroad, which makes ASEAN the fourth ranked destination of Chinese direct investment. And Chinese capital is heading for a broader swath of local industries, extending to new energy and manufacturing sectors as well as conventional construction and project contracting areas. The US $80 billion investment from ASEAN makes up 6.6 percent of the total foreign investment in China, which makes ASEAN the third largest foreign investment source.
  Since the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was officially launched in January 2010, bilateral trade has developed rapidly, with meaningful progress in such areas as services trade, settlement in local currency, and currency exchange agreements. China now spearheads the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) scheme of the 10 ASEAN member states and their FTA Partners, which looks forward to concluding negotiations by 2015. As a regional integration scheme parallel to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) advocated by the U.S. RCEP cannot be realized without positive response and support of ASEAN countries.   In the realm of diplomacy and security, how China and linked ASEAN countries handle territorial disputes in the South China Sea will impact longterm relations between regional powers. On this issue ASEAN has chosen to collectively negotiate with China on the Code of Conduct (COC), to implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) signed in 2002. Unless new concessions and consensus are achieved, the South China Sea issue will be exploited by the U.S. and Japan, driving a wedge between China and ASEAN countries to cripple China’s influence in the region. If unresolved for protracted periods, the issue would deter political ties between the two parties. Without an ASEAN that understands and welcomes its rise, China cannot expect a favorable geopolitical environment in East Asia.
  The October visits by the Chinese president and premier indicate that China, under a new leadership, has made relations with ASEAN its diplomatic priority to an unprecedented degree. Beijing now sees a way out of territorial disputes, with a winwin solution amidst intensifying strategic competition between the big powers through closer political ties with major ASEAN countries and accelerated economic integration with the region.
   Joint Defense and Mutual Aid
  Recent visits by Chinese leaders to ASEAN countries highlight China’s consistent policies towards this region: building good neighborliness, a common prosperity plus stability. They have even gone one step further by working to upgrade the partnership across the board, instead of solely playing the economic card.
  During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit, China boosted ties with Indonesia and Malaysia toward a comprehensive strategic partnership. In his speech to Indonesia’s parliament on October 3, Xi proposed to build a “Maritime Silk Road” and to set up an Asian investment bank to support regional connectivity construction. In Malaysia, Xi and Prime Minister Najib Razak agreed on a five-year economic and trade cooperation blueprint, aiming to increase bilateral trade to US $160 billion by 2017.
  At the 16th ASEAN-China (10+1) Summit in Bandar Seri Begawan, capital of Brunei, on October 9, Premier Li Keqiang called on China and ASEAN to further deepen the twopoint political consensus: first, that the fundamental issue of promoting cooperation lies in deepening strategic trust and exploring neighborly amity; second, that the key to deeper cooperation is a focus on economic development, expanding mutual benefit and win-win outcomes. Li spelled out seven fields of cooperation. These overtures all serve the goal of comprehensively upgrading the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement on the basis of mutual trust and a win-win situation, continuously advancing regional connectivity and liberalization of mutual investment.   During his foreign trips the Chinese premier seized the opportunity to advocate China’s high-tech products – a high-speed train in Thailand, machinery in Brunei and infrastructure projects in Vietnam, exploring new channels of cooperation for mutual benefit. Meanwhile, he endeavored to enhance personnel exchanges and emotional bonds between peoples on both sides. The China-ASEAN relationship could be aptly compared to that of good neighbors who look out for each other and offer help when needed.
  While earnestly boosting mutual friendship and cooperation, during their October visits, Chinese leaders candidly and explicitly introduced to their hosts the new administration’s domestic policies, displaying China’s resolve and confidence in sustaining strong growth amid active regulation and reform.
  In his speech at the APEC CEO Summit in Bali, President Xi Jinping said that China is drawing up a master plan for comprehensive deepening of reform, with the overall purpose of advancing reforms to the economy, politics, culture, society, ecological civilization construction, and other fields, and adding new momentum to economic development. This is the keynote of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee – as China enters the stage of deepening reforms. Xi called on Asia-Pacific countries to promote the establishment of an open economic development mode, featuring development and innovation, interlinked growth, and integrated interests, so that the Asia-Pacific economy can play a leading role in the recovery of the world economy.
  During his visit to Thailand, Premier Li Keqiang reached a deal with PM Yingluck Shinawatra that allows Thailand to provide part of the payment for the high-speed railway project built by China through rice and rubber. In Vietnam, the premier and PM Nguyen Tan Dung agreed on forming three work groups to simultaneously advance maritime, onshore and financial cooperation between the two countries. The consensus on the three-track approach evidences new heights in mutual political trust and economic cooperation between China and Vietnam, and dissipates the tensions over island disputes in the South China Sea.
  As the old Chinese saying goes, better a neighbor nearby than a relation far away. China, Thailand and Vietnam have sustained close ties throughout history, and China has continued working toward enhancing them.
   Strength In Unity
  The October visits to ASEAN by Chinese leaders were more inclusive and extensive than before, in that they did not sidestep territorial issues or shy away from concerns about a rising China and its consequences in the South China Sea. They responded to relevant misgivings by speaking through facts, and emphasized cooperation and solidarity. In contrast to the harping on of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe at multilateral and bilateral events about an alleged maritime security threat posed by China, Chinese leaders have demonstrated a down-to-earth attitude and readiness to build consensus and resolve real issues.   In his APEC speech, President Xi Jinping vowed that China will firmly maintain regional peace and stability, and vigorously promote regional development and prosperity. He continued to propose that the Asia-Pacific region seek common, open and interactive development.
  At the East Asia Summit, Premier Li Keqiang detailed China’s position on the South China Sea issue, acknowledging the frictions but also stressing the overarching significance of stability in the region – for a solution demands that security obligations should be shared by all countries concerned. He also made the constructive proposal of building a regional security cooperative framework befitting East Asia’s local conditions. This framework should not be based on any exclusive military bloc, nor seek legitimacy by exaggerating alleged threats. Instead, it should be a multilateral establishment anchored on strategic mutual trust, aimed at promoting regional cooperation.
  During Li’s visit to Brunei, the two countries issued a joint statement reiterating that those sovereign states directly involved should resolve South China Sea territorial and jurisdictional disputes through peaceful dialogue and consultation. A joint statement was also signed during Li’s visit to Vietnam that envisions a step-by-step approach to resolving the South China Sea issue. As regards bilateral disputes in the South China Sea, the two sides reaffirmed their commitment to handling differences in a proper manner, to prevent the issue from disrupting overall cooperation. Looking back on the ups and downs in China-Vietnam relations since the Cold War era, the Chinese premier said that the territorial dispute in the South China Sea remains the last unsettled issue between the two countries. Given the remarkable progress in bilateral ties over the recent 20 years, we have good reason to believe that the two countries will resolve this remaining contention.
  At the 16th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Summit, Premier Li Keqiang referred to “chopstick wisdom,” i.e., how fragile things joined together in a bundle become unbreakable, to underline the significance of unity among ASEAN and East Asian countries. East Asia sees the world’s fastest economic growth, yet it also encompasses some of the most crucial regional security uncertainties of the century. Global economic gravity often implies being at the geopolitical strategic epicenter, as testified by the history of international relations. If East Asian countries were to stand together shoulder to shoulder like a bundle of sticks, there is no difficulty or uncertainty that could not be overcome.
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